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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +12.32$

Invest 16.82$

Average return 29.13$

ROI +73.2%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 42.77 $, profit at most −13.63 $

float premium: at least 26 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×9

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

13.71 $

at 1.52

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

3.11 $

at 3.11

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.82 $ +12.32 (+73.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1.52 $

at 1.52

Steam

×7

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

12.02 $

at 1.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6.22 $

at 3.11

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.76 $ +10.03 (+50.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1.52 $

at 1.52

Steam

×6

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

10.30 $

at 1.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6.22 $

at 3.11

Steam

×1

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

4.99 $

at 4.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23.04 $ +7.42 (+32.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

1.52 $

at 1.52

Steam

×5

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

8.58 $

at 1.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

6.22 $

at 3.11

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

9.98 $

at 4.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 26.31 $ +4.81 (+18.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −15 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

1.52 $

at 1.52

Steam

×4

G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

6.87 $

at 1.72

Steam

×2

MAG-7 | Memento

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

6.22 $

at 3.11

Steam

×3

MAG-7 | Memento

Factory New

buy 0.0200–0.0226

14.97 $

at 4.99

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 29.59 $ +2.19 (+7.4%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

at a loss

Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.039166

9.22 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.066666

90.04 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.056666

29.00 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

worst

Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.083333

2.72 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

Galil AR | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121666

25.75 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

P250 | Splash

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67.36 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Sawed-Off | Orange DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121666

27.94 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Wildfire Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +6.52 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +9.85 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3129165 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 12.64$ · invest 17.81$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAC-10 | Aloha (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074480 instead of 0.075645
Craft 3134375 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 11.81$ · invest 15.98$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested) instead of MAG-7 | Memento (Minimal Wear); Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075886 instead of 0.075645

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

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How to build