The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −13 421.14₴

Invest at least 50 485.88₴

Average return 37 064.74₴

ROI −26.6%

Chance of profit 22%

With float: invest at least 50 485.88 ₴, profit at most −13 421.14 ₴

float premium: at least 28 127 ₴

To build: medium

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −6 299.11 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0114

17 472.51 ₴

at 4 368.13

Steam

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0138

4 242.31 ₴

at 4 242.31

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 714.82 ₴ +15 349.91 (+70.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 728 ₴

5% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

13 104.38 ₴

at 4 368.13

Steam

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0161

8 484.63 ₴

at 4 242.31

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 589.01 ₴ +9 726.19 (+45.0%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 39%
About break-even 10%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 636.24 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 023.69 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 128.27 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 933.68 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 890.84 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 859.89 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 808.81 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 471.47 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 916.70 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 827.28 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 143.35 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 199.97 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 560.30 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 861.54 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 103.37 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 903.93 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 032.69 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

263 930.11 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 247.94 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 155.69 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 479.04 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 149.05 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 887.34 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 356.64 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 998.08 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

9 369.37 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 413.17 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 838.72 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 087.84 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.92 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 307.67 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 263.37 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 072.76 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

3 680.60 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +12 963.09 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +15 040.19 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Revolution Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 29 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3136395 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 451.35₴ · invest 23 759.75₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136396 · The Revolution Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 15 451.35₴ · invest 23 759.75₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009213 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136391 · The Wildfire Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 349.91₴ · invest 21 714.82₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3136311 · The Revolution Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 15 281.71₴ · invest 21 632.72₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136312 · The Prisma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 281.71₴ · invest 21 632.72₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136131 · The Revolution Collection + The Kilowatt Collection · profit 15 062.86₴ · invest 20 717.64₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136132 · The Kilowatt Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 15 062.86₴ · invest 20 717.64₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135963 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 14 972.68₴ · invest 24 262.93₴
profit on prices without salesat least −309 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135964 · The Gamma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 972.68₴ · invest 24 262.93₴
profit on prices without salesat least −309 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011546 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135033 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 14 775.24₴ · invest 24 435.85₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.005233 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135034 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 775.24₴ · invest 24 435.85₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.005233 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136161 · The Revolution Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 14 676.29₴ · invest 26 498.37₴
profit on prices without salesat least −590 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012385 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136163 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 676.29₴ · invest 26 498.37₴
profit on prices without salesat least −590 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012385 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3134953 · The Revolution Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 14 620.96₴ · invest 24 590.13₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012251 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3134954 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 620.96₴ · invest 24 590.13₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012251 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135829 · The Revolution Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 14 522.87₴ · invest 21 544.76₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135830 · The Fever Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 522.87₴ · invest 21 544.76₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135401 · The Revolution Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 14 475.32₴ · invest 24 151.60₴
profit on prices without salesat least −423 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135402 · The Chroma Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 475.32₴ · invest 24 151.60₴
profit on prices without salesat least −423 ₴ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.006063 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136377 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 354.17₴ · invest 22 395.84₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136378 · The Revolution Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 14 354.17₴ · invest 22 395.84₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135739 · The Revolution Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 14 207.84₴ · invest 22 908.51₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135740 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 207.84₴ · invest 22 908.51₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135929 · The Revolution Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 14 075.78₴ · invest 25 159.83₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 206 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3135930 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 075.78₴ · invest 25 159.83₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 206 ₴ marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136385 · The Spectrum Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 008.59₴ · invest 23 772.25₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136386 · The Revolution Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 14 008.59₴ · invest 23 772.25₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.012446 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136287 · The Revolution Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 13 997.46₴ · invest 22 916.97₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477
Craft 3136288 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 997.46₴ · invest 22 916.97₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.013513 instead of 0.011477

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Revolution Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build