The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +18 686.83₴

Invest 18 306.70₴

Average return 36 993.52₴

ROI +102.1%

Chance of profit 56%

With float: invest at least 42 459.98 ₴, profit at most −5 466.46 ₴

float premium: at least 23 004 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −2 858.35 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit ≈ enough for 1 contract · medium (by listings)

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

4 074.93 ₴

at 4 074.93

Steam

×4

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

14 231.77 ₴

at 3 557.94

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 306.70 ₴ +18 686.83 (+102.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 966 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

8 149.87 ₴

at 4 074.93

Steam

×3

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

10 673.82 ₴

at 3 557.94

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 823.69 ₴ +12 484.67 (+66.3%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 748 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

12 224.80 ₴

at 4 074.93

Steam

×2

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

7 115.88 ₴

at 3 557.94

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 340.68 ₴ +6 282.51 (+32.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −13 531 ₴

2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

16 299.73 ₴

at 4 074.93

Steam

×1

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

3 557.94 ₴

at 3 557.94

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 857.67 ₴ +80.35 (+0.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 56%
Losing outcome 37%
About break-even 2%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 626.73 ₴ 3.33%

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 981.99 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 094.29 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 923.94 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 873.61 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 850.97 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 787.52 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 459.07 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 877.30 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91 295.00 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 125.18 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 200.03 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 496.84 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 732.58 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 066.03 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 885.47 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

53 842.41 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

263 696.04 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 167.91 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 143.24 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 594.66 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 136.62 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 887.38 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 424.80 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 699.14 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 814.67 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 406.26 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 806.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 063.51 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 349.75 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 292.38 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 349.20 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 249.47 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 049.06 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Clutch Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 only The Clutch Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Clutch Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +16 293.74 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +18 367.31 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3183571 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 20 547.38₴ · invest 16 974.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.004650 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183573 · The Clutch Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit 20 547.38₴ · invest 16 974.76₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AK-47 | Asiimov (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.004650 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183653 · The Vanguard Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 20 429.64₴ · invest 18 741.82₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008639 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183655 · The Clutch Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 20 429.64₴ · invest 18 741.82₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008639 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183285 · The Clutch Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit 20 164.74₴ · invest 17 016.11₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183287 · The CS20 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 20 164.74₴ · invest 17 016.11₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008286 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183661 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 19 776.16₴ · invest 19 395.30₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183663 · The Clutch Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 19 776.16₴ · invest 19 395.30₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007807 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3183659 · The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 18 686.83₴ · invest 18 306.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build