The Wildfire Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +45 903.81₴

Invest 58 266.33₴

Average return 104 170.14₴

ROI +78.8%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 131 274.41 ₴, profit at most −27 104.27 ₴

float premium: at least 71 087 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +63 245.69 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 16.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −42 267.09 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

8 149.87 ₴

at 4 074.93

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

50 116.47 ₴

at 16 705.49

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 58 266.33 ₴ +45 903.81 (+78.8%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 21.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 766 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

16 299.73 ₴

at 4 074.93

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

16 705.49 ₴

at 16 705.49

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 33 005.22 ₴ +11 220.06 (+34.0%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 25%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 8%
Above the Steam cap 17%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 699.14 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 814.67 ₴ 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 406.26 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

65 806.74 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

50 063.51 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 349.75 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

20 292.38 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 349.20 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 249.47 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 049.06 ₴ 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

60 994.01 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 394.40 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 004.79 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 529.99 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

245 707.54 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 600.59 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

109 942.41 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 846.64 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 057.83 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

98 959.28 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

75 931.21 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

46 570.70 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

190 818.28 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 320 959.82 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

356 209.66 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

126 189.98 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

964 792.99 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 998.51 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

25 703.72 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

69 856.06 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15 990.61 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +44 015.43 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +45 662.83 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Glove Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3183779 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 57 830.85₴ · invest 68 425.28₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183781 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 57 830.85₴ · invest 68 425.28₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183231 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 51 031.18₴ · invest 70 365.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183232 · The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 51 031.18₴ · invest 70 365.41₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184183 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 48 082.48₴ · invest 60 443.52₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184184 · The Glove Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 48 082.48₴ · invest 60 443.52₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184165 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 47 679.12₴ · invest 60 846.88₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184166 · The Glove Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 47 679.12₴ · invest 60 846.88₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184182 · The Glove Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 45 903.81₴ · invest 58 266.33₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3184185 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 45 841.54₴ · invest 62 684.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184186 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 45 841.54₴ · invest 62 684.46₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184157 · The Prisma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 45 267.43₴ · invest 58 432.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184158 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 45 267.43₴ · invest 58 432.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183153 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 44 493.04₴ · invest 64 032.96₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183154 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 44 493.04₴ · invest 64 032.96₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183071 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 44 185.00₴ · invest 64 341.00₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008403 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3183072 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 44 185.00₴ · invest 64 341.00₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008403 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184169 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 43 500.32₴ · invest 59 978.77₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3184170 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 43 500.32₴ · invest 59 978.77₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build