The Wildfire Collection + The Snakebite Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −158 981.93₸

Invest at least 459 237.14₸

Average return 300 255.21₸

ROI −34.6%

Chance of profit 18%

With float: invest at least 459 237.14 ₸, profit at most −158 981.93 ₸

float premium: at least 238 053 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −44 345 ₸

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −45 906.21 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

40 540.33 ₸

at 40 540.33

Steam

×4

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

157 154.34 ₸

at 39 288.59

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 197 694.68 ₸ +102 560.53 (+51.9%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −81 295 ₸

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0097

81 080.67 ₸

at 40 540.33

Steam

×3

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0097

117 865.76 ₸

at 39 288.59

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 198 946.42 ₸ +61 694.36 (+31.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.5% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −118 245 ₸

1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

121 621.00 ₸

at 40 540.33

Steam

×2

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0093

78 577.17 ₸

at 39 288.59

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 200 198.17 ₸ +20 828.19 (+10.4%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 53%
Losing outcome 36%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

120 364.33 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

437 746.44 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

115 829.65 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

147 598.39 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

402 386.38 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

95 619.42 ₸ 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

172 742.56 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

469 083.41 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

781 751.65 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

230 185.79 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

499 999.24 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

486 216.99 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

322 984.47 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

638 249.82 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

433 684.56 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

428 343.53 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

429 639.76 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

291 542.71 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 166 170.90 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

103 183.21 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

603 825.69 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

186 035.86 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

240 014.44 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

96 493.90 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

117 540.74 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

133 375.02 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

654 692.32 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

498 067.42 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

93 017.93 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

201 883.00 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

93 012.46 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

191 507.45 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

40 282.95 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Snakebite Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Snakebite Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Shadow Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +88 855.32 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +99 709.70 ₸ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Snakebite Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3184621 · The Snakebite Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 102 560.52₸ · invest 197 694.68₸
profit on prices without salesat least −44 345 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3184627 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 102 250.77₸ · invest 219 672.02₸
profit on prices without salesat least −42 915 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.008046 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3184628 · The Snakebite Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 102 250.77₸ · invest 219 672.02₸
profit on prices without salesat least −42 915 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.008046 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3183185 · The Snakebite Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 95 542.86₸ · invest 226 379.93₸
profit on prices without salesat least −49 623 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.010562 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3183186 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 95 542.86₸ · invest 226 379.93₸
profit on prices without salesat least −49 623 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.010562 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3184129 · The Snakebite Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 95 261.41₸ · invest 226 293.48₸
profit on prices without salesat least −53 978 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.009770 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3184130 · The Gamma Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 95 261.41₸ · invest 226 293.48₸
profit on prices without salesat least −53 978 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.009770 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3183103 · The Snakebite Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 94 010.53₸ · invest 227 912.26₸
profit on prices without salesat least −51 155 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.011106 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3183105 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 94 010.53₸ · invest 227 912.26₸
profit on prices without salesat least −51 155 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.011106 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3183555 · The Snakebite Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 93 101.55₸ · invest 220 860.63₸
profit on prices without salesat least −51 761 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.005535 instead of 0.010197
Craft 3183556 · The Chroma Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 93 101.55₸ · invest 220 860.63₸
profit on prices without salesat least −51 761 ₸ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.005535 instead of 0.010197

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Snakebite Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build