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The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −123.23₴

Invest at least 505.03₴

Average return 381.80₴

ROI −24.4%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 505.03 ₴, profit at most −123.23 ₴

float premium: at least 285 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +171.73 ₴ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

20.20 ₴

at 20.20

Steam

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

37.34 ₴

at 37.34

Steam

×4

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

73.61 ₴

at 18.40

Steam

×4

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

87.38 ₴

at 21.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 218.53 ₴ +163.27 (+74.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

101.00 ₴

at 20.20

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

112.02 ₴

at 37.34

Steam

×2

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0776

36.81 ₴

at 18.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 249.83 ₴ +92.03 (+36.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×6

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

121.21 ₴

at 20.20

Steam

×3

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0058

112.02 ₴

at 37.34

Steam

×1

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0766

18.40 ₴

at 18.40

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 251.62 ₴ +83.58 (+33.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×5

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

101.00 ₴

at 20.20

Steam

×2

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0046

74.68 ₴

at 37.34

Steam

×3

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0753

65.54 ₴

at 21.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 241.22 ₴ +107.30 (+44.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×1

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0045

37.34 ₴

at 37.34

Steam

×5

SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

92.01 ₴

at 18.40

Steam

×4

XM1014 | Scumbria

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0752

87.38 ₴

at 21.85

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 216.73 ₴ +171.73 (+79.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 60%
Losing outcome 20%
About break-even 20%

in profit

best

Galil AR | Stone Cold

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 171.99 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.077777

113.56 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

about break-even

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.048222

239.00 ₴ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

P250 | Wingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

292.99 ₴ 20.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AWP | Exothermic

Factory New

float up to 0.054444

395.98 ₴ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Sleeping Potion

Factory New

float up to 0.054444

359.66 ₴ 10.00%

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 20.20 → 43.63 ₴

UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New) × 1 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 37.34 → 80.65 ₴

SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 73.61 → 174.09 ₴

XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) × 4 5% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 87.38 → 206.66 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.077777678

outcomes come out up to 0.069999, 0.077777, 0.048222, 0.069999, 0.054444, 0.054444

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection Variant 5 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Harlequin Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +100.22 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +146.06 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Harlequin Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 19 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3227723 · The Radiant Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 193.95₴ · invest 219.79₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M4A1-S | Rose Hex (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3226948 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 187.17₴ · invest 197.98₴
sells slowly rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074314 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3209661 · The Chroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 185.27₴ · invest 246.24₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Grotto (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3222455 · The Horizon Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 185.01₴ · invest 246.75₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3226001 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 184.61₴ · invest 217.55₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3214111 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 181.23₴ · invest 183.16₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074261 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074261 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3210659 · The Clutch Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 178.59₴ · invest 188.98₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SG 553 | Aloha (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074222 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074222 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3229292 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 177.22₴ · invest 194.35₴
sells slowly rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3228010 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 174.11₴ · invest 192.31₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074468 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3229328 · The Shadow Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 171.16₴ · invest 208.77₴
sells slowly rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074117 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3204385 · The Breakout Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 169.56₴ · invest 211.99₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075233 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075233 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3212063 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 169.40₴ · invest 201.16₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074161 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074161 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3192590 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 168.40₴ · invest 227.13₴
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.088909 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.080314 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3208749 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 167.17₴ · invest 195.37₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred), M249 | Spectre (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074430 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3217998 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 164.45₴ · invest 218.42₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 1 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075002 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3229265 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 156.56₴ · invest 184.57₴
sells slowly rare inputs

XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested), UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New), XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 3 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.083333 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3229267 · The Shadow Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 152.00₴ · invest 195.61₴
sells slowly rare inputs

UMP-45 | Oscillator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 6 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074357 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3228359 · The Revolution Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 151.95₴ · invest 175.83₴
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Insomnia (Minimal Wear), SCAR-20 | Fragments (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 5 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074567 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 4; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074567 instead of 0.074090
Craft 3217999 · The Gallery Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 145.79₴ · invest 194.83₴
sells slowly rare inputs

M249 | Hypnosis (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Minimal Wear), UMP-45 | Warm Blooded (Factory New); SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 4; SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074073 instead of 0.074090; XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074073 instead of 0.074090

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Harlequin Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build