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The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +77.34₴

Invest 720.33₴

Average return 797.67₴

ROI +10.7%

Chance of profit 35%

With float: invest at least 1 773.54 ₴, profit at most −975.87 ₴

float premium: at least 940 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract, the price is understated

×8

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

506.12 ₴

at 63.26

Steam

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0749

113.56 ₴

at 113.56

Steam

×1

P90 | Virus

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1642

100.65 ₴

at 100.65

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 720.33 ₴ +77.34 (+10.7%)

What you get 7 outcomes

Profitable outcome 32%
Losing outcome 65%
About break-even 2%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

1 573.96 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

G3SG1 | Flux

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.137646

583.83 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.097882

664.82 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

AUG | Bengal Tiger

Field-Tested

float up to 0.173176

405.85 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Corticera

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.096705

994.90 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

about break-even

P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.096705

838.74 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Bloomstick

Field-Tested

float up to 0.173176

582.16 ₴ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 3 only The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 The Spy Tech Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 6 The Sport & Field Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −9.84 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +55.36 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3229400 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 81.22₴ · invest 707.13₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Field-Tested) instead of P90 | Virus (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161704 instead of 0.164206; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074071 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3197727 · The Achroma Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 80.14₴ · invest 721.32₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Glock-18 | Trace Lock (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Virus (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164697 instead of 0.164206; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075112 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3220945 · The Glove Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 74.08₴ · invest 799.06₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested) instead of P90 | Virus (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.161704 instead of 0.164206; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074071 instead of 0.074941
Craft 3229450 · The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 73.70₴ · invest 749.32₴
sells slowly rare inputs

Five-SeveN | Triumvirate (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Virus (Field-Tested); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162922 instead of 0.164206; M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074494 instead of 0.074941

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 7 outcomes

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How to build