The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −31 165.56₴

Invest at least 47 580.44₴

Average return 16 414.88₴

ROI −65.5%

Chance of profit 9%

With float: invest at least 47 580.44 ₴, profit at most −31 165.56 ₴

float premium: at least 26 339 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: −4 510.47 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −7 526.26 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×4

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0828

10 126.82 ₴

at 2 531.71

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0828

10 940.05 ₴

at 10 940.05

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 066.87 ₴ −4 651.99 (−22.1%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

7 595.12 ₴

at 2 531.71

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

9 740.41 ₴

at 9 740.41

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

10 940.05 ₴

at 10 940.05

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 28 275.58 ₴ −4 510.47 (−15.9%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

5 063.41 ₴

at 2 531.71

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

20 248.97 ₴

at 10 124.49

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

10 940.05 ₴

at 10 940.05

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 36 252.43 ₴ −5 137.10 (−14.2%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 26%
Losing outcome 62%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

13 070.44 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

31 326.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

12 964.41 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 805.96 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

19 691.88 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 269.84 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

17 049.56 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

9 155.20 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 833.68 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 074.94 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 274.63 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

82 066.67 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

64 675.30 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

57 748.52 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

41 039.05 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

72 450.36 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

36 103.08 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

29 149.25 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

77 449.53 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

56 367.69 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

32 422.43 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

31 288.40 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

36 075.28 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

43 898.90 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −5 745.93 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −4 877.12 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3234382 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −4 651.99₴ · invest 21 066.87₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build