The Wildfire Collection + The Shadow Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −9 649.31₴

Invest 18 088.94₴

Average return 8 439.62₴

ROI −53.3%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 39 831.61 ₴, profit at most −31 391.99 ₴

float premium: at least 20 204 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0845

7 595.12 ₴

at 2 531.71

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0127

4 231.80 ₴

at 4 231.80

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1918

6 262.02 ₴

at 6 262.02

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 18 088.94 ₴ −9 649.31 (−53.3%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×2

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0787

5 063.41 ₴

at 2 531.71

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

4 231.80 ₴

at 4 231.80

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1750

12 524.04 ₴

at 6 262.02

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 819.25 ₴ −14 004.67 (−64.2%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: not enough for a contract

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0742

2 531.71 ₴

at 2 531.71

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0036

4 231.80 ₴

at 4 231.80

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1621

18 786.05 ₴

at 6 262.02

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 25 549.56 ₴ −18 360.02 (−71.9%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 6%
Losing outcome 82%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

13 070.44 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

31 326.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

12 964.41 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

8 805.96 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

19 691.88 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 269.84 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

17 049.56 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

9 155.20 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

6 833.68 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 074.94 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

6 274.63 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

8 140.68 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

9 695.82 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

6 222.91 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

3 130.40 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

11 549.70 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 311.44 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 424.11 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

18 704.27 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 399.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 754.05 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 111.46 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

5 025.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers

no wear

6 324.38 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Minimal Wear) × 3 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 7 595.12 → 17 164.97 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 4 231.80 → 9 140.69 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Field-Tested) × 1 18% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 6 262.02 → 13 525.96 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The Huntsman Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −10 482.38 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −9 777.95 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3238790 · The Shadow Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −9 649.32₴ · invest 18 088.94₴
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Shadow Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build