The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −45 014.74₴

Invest at least 158 630.20₴

Average return 113 615.46₴

ROI −28.4%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 158 630.20 ₴, profit at most −45 014.74 ₴

float premium: at least 86 210 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +55 517.01 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −63 812.10 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

50 099.18 ₴

at 16 699.73

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 23 957.63 ₴ +7 257.90 ₴ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

20 545.73 ₴

at 10 272.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 12 120.22 ₴ +1 847.35 ₴ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 70 644.91 ₴ +42 970.56 (+60.8%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

66 798.90 ₴

at 16 699.73

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 23 957.63 ₴ +7 257.90 ₴ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

10 272.86 ₴

at 10 272.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 12 120.22 ₴ +1 847.35 ₴ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 77 071.77 ₴ +55 517.01 (+72.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

33 399.45 ₴

at 16 699.73

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 23 957.63 ₴ +7 257.90 ₴ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

30 818.59 ₴

at 10 272.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 12 120.22 ₴ +1 847.35 ₴ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 64 218.04 ₴ +30 424.11 (+47.4%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

16 699.73 ₴

at 16 699.73

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 23 957.63 ₴ +7 257.90 ₴ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0094

Steam

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

41 091.45 ₴

at 10 272.86

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 12 120.22 ₴ +1 847.35 ₴ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 57 791.18 ₴ +17 877.66 (+30.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 24%
Losing outcome 66%
Above the Steam cap 11%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

84 336.57 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

54 235.74 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 682.31 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

44 740.08 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

58 946.11 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31 645.20 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 269.58 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

199 462.32 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 859.08 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 416.98 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 484.66 ₴ 3.08%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

64 291.45 ₴ 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 857.11 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30 303.72 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 490.20 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 134.55 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 603.68 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

246 320.64 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 518.14 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

55 111.60 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 502.15 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 195.31 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

37 307.20 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 136.47 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

194 268.35 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 324 255.95 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

361 571.59 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

126 504.86 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

967 200.39 ₴ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 090.63 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 820.31 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 939.95 ₴ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 067.89 ₴ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +42 019.69 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +42 832.31 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3273967 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 46 704.39₴ · invest 68 452.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3273968 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 46 704.39₴ · invest 68 452.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3273458 · The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 42 970.56₴ · invest 70 644.91₴
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3274349 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 36 660.87₴ · invest 62 668.92₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3274350 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 36 660.87₴ · invest 62 668.92₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3273383 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 35 280.42₴ · invest 64 049.38₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3273384 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 35 280.42₴ · invest 64 049.38₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3274063 · The Glove Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 35 241.06₴ · invest 61 101.43₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.006756
Craft 3274064 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 35 241.06₴ · invest 61 101.43₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.006756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build