The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +12 292.22₴

Invest 19 163.78₴

Average return 31 456.00₴

ROI +64.1%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 44 495.47 ₴, profit at most −13 039.48 ₴

float premium: at least 25 027 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 4.6% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −9 487.55 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

4 033.52 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0136

Steam

×4

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

15 130.26 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 706.67 ₴ +924.11 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 163.78 ₴ +12 292.22 (+64.1%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 327 ₴

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

8 067.05 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0136

Steam

×3

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

11 347.69 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 706.67 ₴ +924.11 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 414.74 ₴ +5 566.85 (+28.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

12 100.57 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×2

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

7 565.13 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 706.67 ₴ +924.11 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 665.70 ₴ −1 158.52 (−5.9%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

16 134.10 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×1

MP7 | Bloodsport

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

3 782.56 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) — 4 706.67 ₴ +924.11 ₴ per item · on the market 51 · buy 0.0000–0.0120

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 916.66 ₴ −7 883.89 (−39.6%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 55%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 5%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 856.91 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 099.22 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 798.57 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 675.12 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 622.11 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 538.48 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 179.10 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 477.04 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

50 525.74 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

94 867.35 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 674.46 ₴ 3.33%

rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 565.41 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 675.24 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 269.24 ₴ 3.33%

rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 171.00 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

28 551.95 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 122.69 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

264 399.23 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 392.90 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 162.48 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 030.12 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 721.17 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 613.23 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 216.07 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 300.72 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 700.66 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 856.97 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 193.26 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 401.56 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 986.65 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 921.32 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 725.87 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 964.72 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 045.85 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 only The Clutch Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Clutch Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Clutch Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +10 746.80 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +12 085.41 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Clutch Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 23 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3273857 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 13 125.47₴ · invest 21 415.13₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007121 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273858 · The Clutch Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 13 125.47₴ · invest 21 415.13₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.007121 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273797 · The Fever Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 879.10₴ · invest 19 179.35₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273798 · The Clutch Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 12 879.10₴ · invest 19 179.35₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273363 · The Clutch Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 12 435.24₴ · invest 22 105.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009024 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273364 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 435.24₴ · invest 22 105.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009024 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273793 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 415.56₴ · invest 20 631.39₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009125 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273794 · The Clutch Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 12 415.56₴ · invest 20 631.39₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009125 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273719 · The Clutch Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 12 341.58₴ · invest 21 845.96₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.005081 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273720 · The Chroma Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 341.58₴ · invest 21 845.96₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.005081 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273841 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 308.74₴ · invest 20 049.29₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273842 · The Clutch Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 12 308.74₴ · invest 20 049.29₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273854 · The Clutch Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 12 292.22₴ · invest 19 163.78₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3273287 · The Clutch Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit 12 280.85₴ · invest 22 259.75₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009417 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273288 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 280.85₴ · invest 22 259.75₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009417 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273849 · The Spectrum Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 152.08₴ · invest 21 385.39₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273850 · The Clutch Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 12 152.08₴ · invest 21 385.39₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273847 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 12 005.95₴ · invest 21 531.52₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273848 · The Clutch Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 12 005.95₴ · invest 21 531.52₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.008911 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273803 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 11 997.08₴ · invest 22 811.77₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273804 · The Clutch Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 11 997.08₴ · invest 22 811.77₴
marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273815 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Clutch Collection · profit 11 965.53₴ · invest 24 171.18₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756
Craft 3273817 · The Clutch Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 11 965.53₴ · invest 24 171.18₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New): float at most 0.009444 instead of 0.008756

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Clutch Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build