The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −14 485.92₴

Invest 21 635.23₴

Average return 7 149.31₴

ROI −67.0%

Chance of profit 4%

With float: invest at least 50 039.58 ₴, profit at most −42 890.27 ₴

float premium: at least 28 183 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: −14 239.22 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −15 770.39 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×1

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0090

5 501.13 ₴

at 5 501.13

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 613.91 ₴ +112.78 ₴ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0090

16 134.10 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0140

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 21 635.23 ₴ −14 485.92 (−67.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈3

×3

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0098

16 503.38 ₴

at 5 501.13

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 613.91 ₴ +112.78 ₴ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0098

8 067.05 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0153

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 24 570.43 ₴ −14 239.22 (−58.0%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈3

×2

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0094

11 002.26 ₴

at 5 501.13

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 613.91 ₴ +112.78 ₴ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0117

Steam

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0094

12 100.57 ₴

at 4 033.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 23 277.32 ₴ +19 243.79 ₴ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0146

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 23 102.83 ₴ −14 362.57 (−62.2%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 4%
Losing outcome 78%
Above the Steam cap 18%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 300.72 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

11 700.66 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 856.97 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 193.26 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

12 401.56 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 986.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 921.32 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 725.87 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 964.72 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 045.85 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

66 624.54 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

36 750.10 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

76 141.10 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

53 838.46 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

37 871.23 ₴ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

30 445.78 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

11 993.20 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

4 543.07 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

7 838.91 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

8 786.73 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 699.41 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 489.21 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

4 807.35 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

2 777.72 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 746.50 ₴ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

4 194.03 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

2 995.59 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 269.06 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

9 402.02 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

4 231.25 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 298.94 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

7 699.27 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 261.86 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 674.20 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

11 056.73 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

3 658.90 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

6 735.77 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

8 917.93 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 888.11 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 596.39 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) × 1 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 5 501.13 → 11 882.44 ₴

M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New) × 4 13% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 16 134.10 → 38 157.14 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.013513414

outcomes come out up to 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −15 084.21 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −14 679.80 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dreams & Nightmares Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 17 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3274767 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −13 776.01₴ · invest 22 418.97₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.007050 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274768 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit −13 776.01₴ · invest 22 418.97₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.007050 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3273421 · The Wildfire Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit −14 466.23₴ · invest 23 109.20₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008909 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3273422 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 466.23₴ · invest 23 109.20₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008909 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274087 · The Wildfire Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −14 485.91₴ · invest 21 635.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3273777 · The Wildfire Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit −14 559.89₴ · invest 22 849.80₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3273778 · The Chroma Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 559.89₴ · invest 22 849.80₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.005045 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3273345 · The Wildfire Collection + The Arms Deal 2 Collection · profit −14 620.62₴ · invest 23 263.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009293 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3273346 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 620.62₴ · invest 23 263.59₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009293 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274749 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit −14 749.39₴ · invest 22 389.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274750 · The Spectrum Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 749.39₴ · invest 22 389.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274739 · The Wildfire Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit −14 895.52₴ · invest 22 535.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274740 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 895.52₴ · invest 22 535.36₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

P250 | See Ya Later (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.008799 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274271 · The Wildfire Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit −14 904.40₴ · invest 23 815.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274272 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 904.40₴ · invest 23 815.61₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274485 · The Wildfire Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit −14 935.94₴ · invest 25 175.02₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008
Craft 3274486 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −14 935.94₴ · invest 25 175.02₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New): float at most 0.009319 instead of 0.009008

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build