The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +1 066.35$

Invest 1 648.86$

Average return 2 715.21$

ROI +64.7%

Chance of profit 23%

With float: invest at least 3 864.53 $, profit at most −1 149.32 $

float premium: at least 2 164 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −1 507.57 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

170.90 $

at 170.90

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.43 $ +49.53 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

1 477.97 $

at 369.49

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 530.08 $ +160.59 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 648.86 $ +1 066.35 (+64.7%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3

×4

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

683.59 $

at 170.90

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.43 $ +49.53 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

369.49 $

at 369.49

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 530.08 $ +160.59 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 053.08 $ −252.44 (−24.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 9.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

512.69 $

at 170.90

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.43 $ +49.53 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

738.98 $

at 369.49

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 530.08 $ +160.59 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 251.67 $ +187.15 (+14.9%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

341.79 $

at 170.90

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.43 $ +49.53 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

1 108.48 $

at 369.49

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 530.08 $ +160.59 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 450.27 $ +626.75 (+43.2%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 23%
Losing outcome 65%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

749.11 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

670.49 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

851.62 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 153.51 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

655.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 450.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

763.74 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 219.38 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 885.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

825.45 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

489.78 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 298.31 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 300.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 000.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 799.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 399.92 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

510.89 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

305.78 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

419.06 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

355.51 $ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

237.84 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

292.41 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

300.49 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

147.33 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

358.83 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

138.69 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

100.56 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

300.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

144.96 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

122.27 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

112.72 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

115.88 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 053.81 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 064.25 $ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3273739 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 1 141.20$ · invest 1 626.56$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3273740 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 141.20$ · invest 1 626.56$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3274315 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 132.88$ · invest 1 678.00$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3274316 · The Glove Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 1 132.88$ · invest 1 678.00$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3274105 · The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 1 066.35$ · invest 1 648.86$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3274351 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 052.97$ · invest 1 722.61$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3274352 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 1 052.97$ · invest 1 722.61$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3274309 · The Horizon Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 041.76$ · invest 1 693.49$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3274310 · The Glove Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 1 041.76$ · invest 1 693.49$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build