The Shadow Collection + The Recoil Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −3 165.02₴

Invest 27 086.39₴

Average return 23 921.36₴

ROI −11.7%

Chance of profit 37%

With float: invest at least 61 608.30 ₴, profit at most −37 686.94 ₴

float premium: at least 32 529 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −17 149.92 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0100

11 956.13 ₴

at 11 956.13

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0100

Steam

×4

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0100

15 130.26 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 5 153.61 ₴ +1 371.05 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 27 086.39 ₴ −3 165.02 (−11.7%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 19.3% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0124

47 824.51 ₴

at 11 956.13

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

×1

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0124

3 782.56 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 5 153.61 ₴ +1 371.05 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0151

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 51 607.08 ₴ −42 807.38 (−83.0%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.5% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0115

35 868.39 ₴

at 11 956.13

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0115

Steam

×2

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0115

7 565.13 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 5 153.61 ₴ +1 371.05 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0140

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 43 433.51 ₴ −29 593.26 (−68.1%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.7% of the chance

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0107

23 912.26 ₴

at 11 956.13

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0107

Steam

×3

AWP | Chromatic Aberration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0107

11 347.69 ₴

at 3 782.56

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New) — 5 153.61 ₴ +1 371.05 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 35 259.95 ₴ −16 379.15 (−46.5%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 55%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 658.92 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 536.59 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 863.75 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 352.49 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 268.14 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 492.73 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 904.67 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 605.74 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

79 269.60 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 717.60 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 301.37 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

49 425.03 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 210.36 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

64 314.09 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 760.68 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 162.61 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 049.11 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 377.69 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

117 510.77 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 363.58 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

26 873.11 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 896.18 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 064.20 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

7 665.10 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

5 560.61 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 490.96 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 520.15 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 583.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 178.73 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 363.22 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 053.28 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 484.78 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers

no wear

3 298.52 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Recoil Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Recoil Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Breakout Collection instead of The Recoil Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −4 333.88 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −3 352.18 ₴ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Recoil Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3274624 · The Recoil Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −3 165.03₴ · invest 27 086.39₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Recoil Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build