The Wildfire Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −5 876.15₴

Invest 12 654.11₴

Average return 6 777.96₴

ROI −46.4%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 31 255.66 ₴, profit at most −24 477.70 ₴

float premium: at least 17 039 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0

×5

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0778

12 654.11 ₴

at 2 530.82

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) — 30 260.52 ₴ +27 729.69 ₴ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1216

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 12 654.11 ₴ −5 876.15 (−46.4%)

What you get 13 outcomes

Profitable outcome 8%
Losing outcome 85%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

12 088.13 ₴ 7.69%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

31 249.13 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

5 179.30 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

6 082.47 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

10 997.61 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 7.69%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 767.18 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

8 085.65 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

7 018.78 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 423.52 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

3 483.64 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

4 875.36 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife

no wear

4 079.80 ₴ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −6 399.63 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −5 968.61 ₴ historical median

8% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 13 outcomes

More

How to build