The Falchion Collection + The CS20 Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −152 997.02₸

Invest 206 352.76₸

Average return 53 355.74₸

ROI −74.1%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 455 699.58 ₸, profit at most −402 343.84 ₸

float premium: at least 252 885 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −153 739.19 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1722

99 776.28 ₸

at 33 258.76

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) — 46 871.63 ₸ +13 612.87 ₸ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.1500–0.1722

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

63 989.51 ₸

at 63 989.51

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) — 93 826.26 ₸ +29 836.75 ₸ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0700–0.0777

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

42 586.97 ₸

at 42 586.97

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 155 952.44 ₸ +113 365.47 ₸ per item · on the market 15 · buy 0.0100–0.0193

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 206 352.76 ₸ −152 997.02 (−74.1%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 0%
Losing outcome 94%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

134 415.56 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

126 452.30 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

59 399.42 ₸ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

50 415.39 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

96 000.99 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

34 382.19 ₸ 6.15%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

36 698.05 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

46 454.04 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

38 094.68 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

37 190.69 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

45 702.39 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

66 499.31 ₸ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

best

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

146 924.20 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

101 475.70 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

53 630.10 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

41 918.87 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

92 120.89 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

40 953.89 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

47 723.68 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

90 947.73 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

35 250.64 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

50 780.26 ₸ 1.54%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

47 104.09 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

54 041.50 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Classic Knife

no wear

93 954.31 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 3 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 99 776.28 → 225 494.40 ₸

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 63 989.51 → 138 217.34 ₸

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 42 586.97 → 91 987.85 ₸

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −161 935.02 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −153 971.32 ₸ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 15 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3278130 · The Fracture Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −140 736.34₸ · invest 195 227.95₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278134 · The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit −140 736.34₸ · invest 195 227.95₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278186 · The Huntsman Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −143 837.95₸ · invest 197 947.47₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278190 · The Falchion Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −143 837.95₸ · invest 197 947.47₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278165 · The Gamma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −144 573.92₸ · invest 226 792.98₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172525 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077835 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278173 · The Falchion Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −144 573.92₸ · invest 226 792.98₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172525 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077835 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3277856 · The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −148 353.08₸ · invest 213 036.83₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173632 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078219 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3277864 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −148 353.08₸ · invest 213 036.83₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173632 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078219 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278244 · The Prisma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −149 047.52₸ · invest 211 567.90₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278250 · The Falchion Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −149 047.52₸ · invest 211 567.90₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173292 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078101 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278119 · The Fever Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −149 616.51₸ · invest 206 531.14₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.174124 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078391 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3278125 · The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection · profit −149 616.51₸ · invest 206 531.14₸
no outcome price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.174124 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078391 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3277658 · The Falchion Collection + The Danger Zone Collection · profit −150 245.12₸ · invest 210 173.37₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 3277662 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −150 245.12₸ · invest 210 173.37₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New)
Craft 3276446 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −152 997.00₸ · invest 206 352.76₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

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How to build