The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −986.87$

Invest at least 1 335.03$

Average return 348.16$

ROI −73.9%

Chance of profit 3%

With float: invest at least 1 335.03 $, profit at most −986.87 $

float premium: at least 735 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +25.18 $ по средним

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 20.0% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −454.05 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

356.93 $

at 89.23

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 514.96 $ +425.73 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0127

Steam

×1

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

227.26 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0150

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 584.19 $ −236.03 (−40.4%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 16.9% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

267.70 $

at 89.23

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 514.96 $ +425.73 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

×2

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

454.53 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0143

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 722.23 $ −148.96 (−20.6%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 13.8% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

178.47 $

at 89.23

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 514.96 $ +425.73 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0115

Steam

×3

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

681.79 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0136

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 860.26 $ −61.89 (−7.2%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 10.8% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −49 $

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

89.23 $

at 89.23

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 514.96 $ +425.73 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0110

Steam

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

909.06 $

at 227.26

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 292.33 $ +65.07 $ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 998.29 $ +25.18 (+2.5%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 18%
Losing outcome 62%
Above the Steam cap 20%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

227.88 $ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

258.96 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

284.43 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

181.26 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

274.36 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

154.56 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

131.00 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

82.43 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

154.08 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

90.74 $ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

1 866.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

1 190.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 010.75 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

989.77 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

1 304.22 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

700.17 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

890.95 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 413.23 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 294.70 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

940.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 380.02 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Gallery Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −251.05 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −240.41 $ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3315780 · The Breakout Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit −236.03$ · invest 584.19$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build