The Shadow Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −803.76₸

Invest 484 608.33₸

Average return 483 804.57₸

ROI −0.2%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 1 121 690.24 ₸, profit at most −637 885.67 ₸

float premium: at least 598 451 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −391 515.40 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

119 065.83 ₸

at 119 065.83

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 238.05 ₸ +18 172.23 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

365 542.51 ₸

at 91 385.63

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 120 946.16 ₸ +29 560.54 ₸ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 484 608.33 ₸ −803.76 (−0.2%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 12.0% of the chance

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

238 131.65 ₸

at 119 065.83

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 238.05 ₸ +18 172.23 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

274 156.88 ₸

at 91 385.63

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 120 946.16 ₸ +29 560.54 ₸ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 512 288.53 ₸ −140 096.23 (−27.4%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.7% of the chance

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

357 197.48 ₸

at 119 065.83

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 238.05 ₸ +18 172.23 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

182 771.25 ₸

at 91 385.63

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 120 946.16 ₸ +29 560.54 ₸ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 539 968.73 ₸ −279 388.69 (−51.7%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 19.4% of the chance

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

476 263.31 ₸

at 119 065.83

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 137 238.05 ₸ +18 172.23 ₸ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

91 385.63 ₸

at 91 385.63

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 120 946.16 ₸ +29 560.54 ₸ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 567 648.94 ₸ −418 681.16 (−73.8%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 44%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

742 747.46 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

542 893.63 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

192 865.42 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

272 757.10 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

228 913.44 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

248 826.64 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

768 851.65 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

742 747.46 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

665 321.64 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

629 759.81 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

364 621.46 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 003 167.32 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

588 377.49 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

625 258.30 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

724 435.32 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

407 162.59 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

387 128.96 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

271 472.18 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

542 898.71 ₸ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 870 647.68 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

850 783.45 ₸ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

76 333.40 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

55 503.57 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

64 640.60 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

84 848.42 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

85 483.23 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

41 614.18 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 534.29 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 364.80 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 620.50 ₸ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers

no wear

31 521.89 ₸ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −4 429.26 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −1 678.44 ₸ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316268 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −803.76₸ · invest 484 608.33₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build