The Shadow Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −64 053.97₴

Invest at least 112 635.73₴

Average return 48 581.75₴

ROI −56.9%

Chance of profit 7%

With float: invest at least 112 635.73 ₴, profit at most −64 053.97 ₴

float premium: at least 60 094 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 8.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −39 314.44 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

11 956.12 ₴

at 11 956.12

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×4

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

36 706.34 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 48 662.47 ₴ −80.71 (−0.2%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 12.0% of the chance

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

23 912.25 ₴

at 11 956.12

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×3

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

27 529.76 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 51 442.00 ₴ −14 067.91 (−27.4%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.7% of the chance

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

35 868.37 ₴

at 11 956.12

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×2

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

18 353.17 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 54 221.54 ₴ −28 055.11 (−51.7%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 19.4% of the chance

7% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

USP-S | Kill Confirmed

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

47 824.49 ₴

at 11 956.12

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Golden Coil (Factory New) — 13 780.91 ₴ +1 824.78 ₴ per item · on the market 22 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

9 176.59 ₴

at 9 176.59

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Factory New) — 12 144.94 ₴ +2 968.35 ₴ per item · on the market 34 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 57 001.08 ₴ −42 042.32 (−73.8%)

What you get 35 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 44%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Crane

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 583.78 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Brocade Flowers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 515.25 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Dragon Fists

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 366.79 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Garden

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.64%

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Hand Sweaters

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 389.20 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Plum Quill

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 986.59 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Seigaiha

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 986.19 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Wave Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

77 205.06 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Lime Polycam

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

74 583.78 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Cloud Chaser

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

66 808.99 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Blackbook

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

63 238.01 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Chocolate Chesterfield

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

36 613.86 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Specialist Gloves | Pillow Punchers

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

201 150.19 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Sunburst

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

59 082.56 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Big Swell

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

62 785.98 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Violet Beadwork

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

72 744.95 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Frosty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 885.67 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Blaze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 873.97 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Creme Pinstripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 260.17 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Sport Gloves | Red Racer

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

54 515.76 ₴ 3.64%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Ultra Violent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

187 843.09 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Occult

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 432.33 ₴ 3.64%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

7 665.10 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

5 573.45 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 490.95 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 520.14 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 583.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 178.73 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Shadow Daggers | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 363.22 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 053.27 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 484.78 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers

no wear

3 165.30 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −444.77 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −168.54 ₴ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316268 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit −80.71₴ · invest 48 662.47₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The Dead Hand Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 35 outcomes

More

How to build