The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit +51 461.20₴

Invest 75 009.56₴

Average return 126 470.75₴

ROI +68.6%

Chance of profit 27%

With float: invest at least 175 920.62 ₴, profit at most −49 449.87 ₴

float premium: at least 99 046 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −68 630.18 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

7 204.81 ₴

at 7 204.81

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 9 962.57 ₴ +2 757.76 ₴ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0075

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

67 804.75 ₴

at 16 951.19

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 24 866.18 ₴ +7 915.00 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 75 009.56 ₴ +51 461.20 (+68.6%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 7.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3

×4

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

28 819.23 ₴

at 7 204.81

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 9 962.57 ₴ +2 757.76 ₴ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0112

16 951.19 ₴

at 16 951.19

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 24 866.18 ₴ +7 915.00 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0157

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 45 770.42 ₴ −8 670.76 (−18.9%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

21 614.42 ₴

at 7 204.81

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 9 962.57 ₴ +2 757.76 ₴ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

33 902.38 ₴

at 16 951.19

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 24 866.18 ₴ +7 915.00 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0135

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 55 516.80 ₴ +11 373.22 (+20.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.1% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

14 409.61 ₴

at 7 204.81

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 9 962.57 ₴ +2 757.76 ₴ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0084

50 853.56 ₴

at 16 951.19

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 24 866.18 ₴ +7 915.00 ₴ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 65 263.18 ₴ +31 417.21 (+48.1%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 27%
Losing outcome 65%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 861.49 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30 303.70 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 495.17 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

52 141.30 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 607.50 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

246 352.48 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

34 518.13 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

97 768.80 ₴ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

51 530.61 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 505.19 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

85 206.32 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

37 307.18 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 136.46 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

194 293.46 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 324 427.13 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

361 618.33 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

149 167.56 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

966 651.00 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 090.62 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 820.31 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 939.94 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

15 834.95 ₴ 3.33%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 749.59 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

13 045.02 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 581.13 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 658.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

16 217.69 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 268.09 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 544.89 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 560.69 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 552.52 ₴ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 526.08 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 094.65 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

4 920.42 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +50 913.10 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +51 359.78 ₴ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Glove Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316019 · The Glove Collection + The Chroma Collection · profit 54 294.36₴ · invest 74 584.91₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3316020 · The Chroma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 54 294.36₴ · invest 74 584.91₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Man-o'-war (Minimal Wear) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.004461 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3316539 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 54 028.12₴ · invest 76 845.67₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3316540 · The Glove Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 54 028.12₴ · invest 76 845.67₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3316335 · The Glove Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 51 461.19₴ · invest 75 009.56₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3316575 · The eSports 2014 Summer Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 50 338.56₴ · invest 78 861.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3316576 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 50 338.56₴ · invest 78 861.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007021 instead of 0.007507
Craft 3316533 · The Horizon Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 49 824.67₴ · invest 77 545.50₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)
Craft 3316534 · The Glove Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 49 824.67₴ · invest 77 545.50₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Desert Eagle | Code Red (Factory New) instead of AWP | Hyper Beast (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build