The Snakebite Collection + The Huntsman Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −505.03$

Invest at least 1 061.94$

Average return 556.91$

ROI −47.6%

Chance of profit 17%

With float: invest at least 1 061.94 $, profit at most −505.03 $

float premium: at least 574 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −176 $

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 7.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −178.14 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0104

378.96 $

at 94.74

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 126.09 $ +31.35 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0131

Steam

×1

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0104

76.72 $

at 76.72

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 800.01 $ +723.29 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0133

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 455.67 $ +101.24 (+22.2%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 11.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −228 $

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

284.22 $

at 94.74

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 126.09 $ +31.35 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0128

Steam

×2

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0101

153.43 $

at 76.72

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 800.01 $ +723.29 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0130

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 437.65 $ +27.44 (+6.3%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 15.5% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0099

189.48 $

at 94.74

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 126.09 $ +31.35 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0125

Steam

×3

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0099

230.15 $

at 76.72

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 800.01 $ +723.29 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0127

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 419.63 $ −46.36 (−11.1%)

The gain is understated: 4 outcomes have no price, that is 19.3% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

94.74 $

at 94.74

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 126.09 $ +31.35 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

×4

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0096

306.87 $

at 76.72

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 800.01 $ +723.29 $ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 401.61 $ −120.16 (−29.9%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 43%
Losing outcome 44%
About break-even 5%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

213.68 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

609.19 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

151.85 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

229.03 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

713.86 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

232.13 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

197.00 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

721.33 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 753.89 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

414.08 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

780.96 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 093.56 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

845.32 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 500.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

503.53 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

955.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 256.53 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

650.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 600.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

185.03 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

594.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

263.18 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

355.38 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

278.31 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

291.46 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

324.81 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

289.87 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

334.03 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

151.16 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

507.69 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

422.78 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

91.52 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife

no wear

143.17 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Snakebite Collection + The Huntsman Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Snakebite Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +70.43 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +97.09 $ historical median

8% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Huntsman Collection and The Snakebite Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 7 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316951 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 103.37$ · invest 508.34$
profit on prices without salesat least −171 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.008046 instead of 0.010407
Craft 3316952 · The Snakebite Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 103.37$ · invest 508.34$
profit on prices without salesat least −171 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.008046 instead of 0.010407
Craft 3316648 · The Huntsman Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 101.24$ · invest 455.67$
profit on prices without salesat least −176 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3316827 · The Snakebite Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 99.38$ · invest 470.42$
profit on prices without salesat least −151 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 3316828 · The Prisma Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 99.38$ · invest 470.42$
profit on prices without salesat least −151 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 3316313 · The Snakebite Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 95.39$ · invest 483.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −162 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.010702 instead of 0.010407
Craft 3316314 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 95.39$ · invest 483.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −162 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New): float at most 0.010702 instead of 0.010407

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Snakebite Collection + The Huntsman Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build