The Revolution Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −361 438.16₸

Invest at least 973 217.86₸

Average return 611 779.71₸

ROI −37.1%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 973 217.86 ₸, profit at most −361 438.16 ₸

float premium: at least 523 344 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +256 260.34 ₸ по средним

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 1.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −335 303.83 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈5

×4

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

178 821.94 ₸

at 44 705.48

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 45 761.80 ₸ +1 056.32 ₸ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×1

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

254 770.37 ₸

at 254 770.37

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.21 ₸ +57 672.83 ₸ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 433 592.31 ₸ +178 187.40 (+41.1%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.7% of the chance

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×1

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

44 705.48 ₸

at 44 705.48

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 45 761.80 ₸ +1 056.32 ₸ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×4

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

1 019 081.49 ₸

at 254 770.37

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.21 ₸ +57 672.83 ₸ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 063 786.98 ₸ +256 260.34 (+24.1%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 5.0% of the chance

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈5

×2

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

89 410.97 ₸

at 44 705.48

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 45 761.80 ₸ +1 056.32 ₸ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×3

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

764 311.12 ₸

at 254 770.37

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.21 ₸ +57 672.83 ₸ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 853 722.09 ₸ +230 236.00 (+27.0%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 3.3% of the chance

≈3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈5

×3

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

134 116.45 ₸

at 44 705.48

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 45 761.80 ₸ +1 056.32 ₸ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×2

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0135

509 540.75 ₸

at 254 770.37

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New) — 312 443.21 ₸ +57 672.83 ₸ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 643 657.20 ₸ +204 211.73 (+31.7%)

What you get 48 outcomes

Profitable outcome 28%
Losing outcome 67%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 2%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

118 077.78 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

469 101.27 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

167 289.52 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

76 433.13 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

165 532.32 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

333 995.00 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

270 664.72 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

124 253.37 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

503 163.65 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

905 256.09 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

136 177.93 ₸ 3.33%

rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

65 382.05 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

713 874.84 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

82 349.71 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

420 016.91 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

284 336.32 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

558 973.70 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 633 377.27 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

889 046.16 ₸ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

220 706.40 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

89 927.01 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

186 435.89 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

45 941.12 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 861.69 ₸ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

337 211.81 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

301 781.39 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

383 356.70 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

519 252.49 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

294 848.23 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 453 317.27 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

343 751.01 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

973 636.93 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

513 170.94 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

234 077.97 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

848 532.67 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

371 525.98 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

220 447.38 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 934 884.10 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 189 393.86 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 601 199.68 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 485 494.86 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 626 456.94 ₸ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

229 949.45 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

137 630.41 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

188 614.65 ₸ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

157 693.41 ₸ 0.83%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Revolution Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 3 only The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 4 The Glove Collection instead of The Operation Hydra Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +162 454.87 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +176 206.11 ₸ historical median

1% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Operation Hydra Collection and The Revolution Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316728 · The Operation Hydra Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 178 187.42₸ · invest 433 592.31₸
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Revolution Collection + The Operation Hydra Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 48 outcomes

More

How to build