The Snakebite Collection + The Revolution Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −14 057.00₴

Invest at least 50 102.19₴

Average return 36 045.19₴

ROI −28.1%

Chance of profit 19%

With float: invest at least 50 102.19 ₴, profit at most −14 057.00 ₴

float premium: at least 27 306 ₴

To build: medium

A more profitable set was dropped: +13 806.17 ₴ по средним

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 0.8% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −11 284.94 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0138

4 282.42 ₴

at 4 282.42

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 5 699.41 ₴ +1 416.99 ₴ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0175

Steam

×1

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0105

4 489.15 ₴

at 4 489.15

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 4 595.22 ₴ +106.07 ₴ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×3

M4A4 | Temukau

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0105

13 785.66 ₴

at 4 595.22

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New) — 4 489.15 ₴ cheaper by 106.07 ₴ · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0131

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 557.23 ₴ +13 487.95 (+59.8%)

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 1.7% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −838 ₴

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0138

4 282.42 ₴

at 4 282.42

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 5 699.41 ₴ +1 416.99 ₴ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0175

Steam

×1

USP-S | The Traitor

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0197

5 699.41 ₴

at 5 699.41

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New) — 4 282.42 ₴ cheaper by 1 416.99 ₴ · on the market 55 · buy 0.0000–0.0156

Steam

×1

AK-47 | Head Shot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

4 489.15 ₴

at 4 489.15

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New) — 4 595.22 ₴ +106.07 ₴ per item · on the market 122 · buy 0.0000–0.0069

Steam

×2

M4A4 | Temukau

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0086

9 190.44 ₴

at 4 595.22

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New) — 4 489.15 ₴ cheaper by 106.07 ₴ · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 23 661.42 ₴ +10 703.59 (+45.2%)

What you get 48 outcomes

Profitable outcome 43%
Losing outcome 52%
About break-even 4%
Above the Steam cap 1%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Duct Tape

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 856.91 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | Cobalt Skulls

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

47 105.31 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Overprint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 798.56 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Arboreal

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 675.11 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Turtle

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 622.11 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | POW!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

33 538.47 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Moto Gloves | Polygon

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 179.09 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Transport

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 477.04 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Imperial Plaid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

50 525.72 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | King Snake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

90 902.26 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Overtake

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 674.45 ₴ 3.33%

rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Racing Green

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 565.41 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

71 684.51 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Buckshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 269.23 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 176.45 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Mogul

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

28 551.94 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Omega

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 129.94 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Vice

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

264 433.40 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

89 274.52 ₴ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Sport Gloves | Bronze Morph

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 162.47 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Emerald

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 030.12 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 721.16 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Hydra Gloves | Mangrove

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 613.23 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 216.07 ₴ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 658.91 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

27 536.58 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 863.75 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 352.48 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 268.12 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

10 492.72 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 904.67 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

32 605.73 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

79 279.85 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

18 717.59 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

35 301.35 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

49 431.42 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 210.34 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

67 803.44 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

22 760.67 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

43 168.19 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

56 797.89 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 381.49 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

117 525.96 ₴ 0.83%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.83%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 363.58 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

26 873.10 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

11 896.17 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

16 064.19 ₴ 0.83%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Snakebite Collection + The Revolution Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Snakebite Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 4 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Snakebite Collection Variant 5 The Clutch Collection instead of The Revolution Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Revolution Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +11 690.72 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +13 264.57 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Revolution Collection and The Snakebite Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3316259 · The Revolution Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 14 686.78₴ · invest 27 451.40₴
sale unreliable no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly цена ненадёжна rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011750 instead of 0.010539; M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New): float at most 0.011750 instead of 0.010539
Craft 3316261 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 14 686.78₴ · invest 27 451.40₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.011750 instead of 0.010539; M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New): float at most 0.011750 instead of 0.010539
Craft 3316839 · The Revolution Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 13 987.81₴ · invest 22 057.37₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009684 instead of 0.010539; M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New): float at most 0.009684 instead of 0.010539
Craft 3316841 · The Recoil Collection + The Revolution Collection · profit 13 987.81₴ · invest 22 057.37₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

AWP | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New); AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New): float at most 0.009684 instead of 0.010539; M4A4 | Temukau (Factory New): float at most 0.009684 instead of 0.010539
Craft 3316875 · The Revolution Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 13 487.95₴ · invest 22 557.23₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Snakebite Collection + The Revolution Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 48 outcomes

More

How to build