The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −13 673.29₴

Invest 22 862.95₴

Average return 9 189.66₴

ROI −59.8%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 51 362.55 ₴, profit at most −42 172.89 ₴

float premium: at least 28 286 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 7 outcomes have no price, that is 6.5% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −15 577.90 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Share of fitting lots unknown: not enough for a contract: 2 items needed, market lots unknown

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3960

6 154.52 ₴

at 3 077.26

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) — 3 542.80 ₴ +465.54 ₴ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.3800–0.3960

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1843

16 708.43 ₴

at 5 569.48

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 22 862.95 ₴ −13 673.29 (−59.8%)

What you get 78 outcomes

Profitable outcome 8%
Losing outcome 85%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

13 497.49 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

10 299.44 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

5 964.66 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 997.69 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 339.04 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 918.58 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 471.91 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 820.40 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 664.74 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 226.61 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 331.66 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

3 687.63 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

6 677.60 ₴ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

24 107.00 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

19 133.22 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

9 723.68 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

6 454.24 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

12 738.14 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 985.06 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

11 649.06 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

6 813.26 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 951.40 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 608.19 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 759.02 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

16 841.91 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

9 907.28 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

5 750.25 ₴ 0.92%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

7 119.75 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 190.97 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 736.13 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

7 836.26 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

5 598.50 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 967.15 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 545.91 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

6 746.96 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

6 054.93 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

3 290.86 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

2 861.98 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

5 539.85 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 295.40 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 277.04 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

4 700.94 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 717.14 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 852.80 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 548.34 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

2 395.72 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

71 374.42 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

44 715.07 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

37 809.50 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

19 541.71 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

33 746.54 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

16 181.97 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

14 990.70 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

30 695.87 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

18 035.25 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

21 570.90 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

20 702.20 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.042162

51 373.29 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Slaughter

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.141756

40 331.83 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Blue Steel

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Stained

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

15 207.95 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Case Hardened

Battle-Scarred

float up to 0.527026

19 846.16 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Forest DDPAT

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

12 922.88 ₴ 0.92%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Boreal Forest

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

13 122.15 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals price cut rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Crimson Web

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

17 312.61 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Night

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

15 080.45 ₴ 0.92%

sell on Market.CSGO price cut pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Scorched

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Safari Mesh

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

not on Steam: above the cap 0.92%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Urban Masked

Well-Worn

float up to 0.449999

14 665.34 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Bayonet

no wear

11 302.56 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife

no wear

9 035.73 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife

no wear

3 917.63 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Karambit

no wear

53 130.16 ₴ 0.92%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet

no wear

30 094.10 ₴ 0.92%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) × 2 23% of the wear range fits at least ×2.21 6 154.52 → 13 601.50 ₴

StatTrak™ M4A4 | X-Ray (Field-Tested) × 3 23% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 16 708.43 → 37 761.05 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.527026927

outcomes come out up to 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.000000, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.042162, 0.141756, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.527026, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.449999, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −14 520.38 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −13 849.77 ₴ historical median

3% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 2 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 78 outcomes

More

How to build