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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +40.71$

Invest 25.79$

Average return 66.51$

ROI +157.8%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 66.13 $, profit at most +0.38 $

float premium: at least 40 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −19 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 9 шт., годных ≈14, цена занижена

×1

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

3.64 $

at 3.64

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New) — 3.71 $ +0.06 $ per item · on the market 176 · buy 0.0000–0.0077
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) — 3.77 $ +0.13 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0084
Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) — 7.51 $ +3.86 $ per item · on the market 160 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

souvenirSteam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0075

22.15 $

at 2.46

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 3.12 $ +0.66 $ per item · on the market 489 · buy 0.0000–0.0101
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 3.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 267 · buy 0.0000–0.0086
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 10.94 $ +8.48 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0101

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 25.79 $ +40.71 (+157.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −21 $

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×2

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

7.29 $

at 3.64

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New) — 3.71 $ +0.06 $ per item · on the market 176 · buy 0.0000–0.0073
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) — 3.77 $ +0.13 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0080
Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) — 7.51 $ +3.86 $ per item · on the market 160 · buy 0.0000–0.0080

souvenirSteam

×8

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

19.69 $

at 2.46

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 3.12 $ +0.66 $ per item · on the market 489 · buy 0.0000–0.0096
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 3.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 267 · buy 0.0000–0.0082
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 10.94 $ +8.48 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0096

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 26.98 $ +36.53 (+135.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −23 $

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×3

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

10.93 $

at 3.64

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New) — 3.71 $ +0.06 $ per item · on the market 176 · buy 0.0000–0.0070
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) — 3.77 $ +0.13 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0077
Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) — 7.51 $ +3.86 $ per item · on the market 160 · buy 0.0000–0.0077

souvenirSteam

×7

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0068

17.23 $

at 2.46

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 3.12 $ +0.66 $ per item · on the market 489 · buy 0.0000–0.0091
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 3.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 267 · buy 0.0000–0.0079
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 10.94 $ +8.48 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0091

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 28.16 $ +32.34 (+114.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −25 $

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×4

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

14.58 $

at 3.64

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New) — 3.71 $ +0.06 $ per item · on the market 176 · buy 0.0000–0.0067
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) — 3.77 $ +0.13 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0073
Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) — 7.51 $ +3.86 $ per item · on the market 160 · buy 0.0000–0.0073

souvenirSteam

×6

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0065

14.77 $

at 2.46

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 3.12 $ +0.66 $ per item · on the market 489 · buy 0.0000–0.0087
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 3.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 267 · buy 0.0000–0.0075
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 10.94 $ +8.48 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0087

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 29.35 $ +28.15 (+95.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −27 $

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈2, цена занижена

×5

Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

18.22 $

at 3.64

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Factory New) — 3.71 $ +0.06 $ per item · on the market 176 · buy 0.0000–0.0064
Souvenir MP9 | Music Box (Factory New) — 3.77 $ +0.13 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0070
Souvenir USP-S | Purple DDPAT (Factory New) — 7.51 $ +3.86 $ per item · on the market 160 · buy 0.0000–0.0070

souvenirSteam

×5

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

12.31 $

at 2.46

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 3.12 $ +0.66 $ per item · on the market 489 · buy 0.0000–0.0084
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 3.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 267 · buy 0.0000–0.0072
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 10.94 $ +8.48 $ per item · on the market 181 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 30.53 $ +23.97 (+78.5%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 60%
About break-even 3%

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

9.69 $ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

14.84 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

215.28 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

AUG | Sand Storm

Factory New

float up to 0.005319

32.21 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.067872

72.92 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

float up to 0.003936

31.10 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection Variant 5 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection Variant 6 only The Train 2025 Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +28.26 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +36.15 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3353754 · The Overpass Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 43.12$ · invest 31.44$
profit on prices without salesat least −25 $ rare inputs

Souvenir XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3357498 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Collection · profit 41.69$ · invest 27.16$
profit on prices without salesat least −21 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Memento (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3333618 · The Bravo Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 41.42$ · invest 27.86$
profit on prices without salesat least −20 $ rare inputs

SG 553 | Wave Spray (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3329601 · The Ancient Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 40.94$ · invest 26.12$
profit on prices without salesat least −19 $ rare inputs

Souvenir FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006439 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3357514 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 40.76$ · invest 25.75$
profit on prices without salesat least −18 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

XM1014 | Red Python (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007369 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3330246 · The Anubis Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 39.39$ · invest 26.10$
profit on prices without salesat least −20 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Copper Coated (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3331406 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 39.37$ · invest 27.39$
profit on prices without salesat least −19 $ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3349333 · The Glove Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 39.32$ · invest 26.89$
profit on prices without salesat least −17 $ rare inputs

MAG-7 | Sonar (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007451 instead of 0.007547
Craft 3327418 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 38.94$ · invest 25.39$
profit on prices without salesat least −18 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of Souvenir SG 553 | Desert Blossom (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007547

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build