The Breakout Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −702 704.23₸

Invest at least 1 271 057.95₸

Average return 568 353.72₸

ROI −55.3%

Chance of profit 8%

With float: invest at least 1 271 057.95 ₸, profit at most −702 704.23 ₸

float premium: at least 740 223 ₸

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −19 389 ₸

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 7.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −399 658.17 ₸

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈2

×5

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

514 598.37 ₸

at 102 919.67

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 133 054.76 ₸ +30 135.08 ₸ per item · on the market 35 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 514 598.37 ₸ +53 755.36 (+10.4%)

What you get 13 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 46%
Above the Steam cap 8%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

851 508.74 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

639 049.75 ₸ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

457 655.59 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

454 455.69 ₸ 7.69%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

590 535.28 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

317 028.67 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

402 967.85 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 998 257.99 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

586 224.76 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

384 869.88 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 7.69%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

425 620.80 ₸ 7.69%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

624 850.18 ₸ 7.69%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one Covert → a knife or gloves

Variant 2 Restricted → Classified

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +38 381.00 ₸ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +50 954.30 ₸ historical median

8% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 13 outcomes

More

How to build