The CS20 Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −5 637.91₴

Invest 15 330.09₴

Average return 9 692.18₴

ROI −36.8%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 35 272.16 ₴, profit at most −25 579.99 ₴

float premium: at least 18 286 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 12.3% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −7 628.03 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

10 532.57 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0200

Steam

×1

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0073

4 797.52 ₴

at 4 797.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 678.25 ₴ +880.73 ₴ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0091

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 15 330.09 ₴ −5 637.91 (−36.8%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

5 266.28 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0220

Steam

×3

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

14 392.55 ₴

at 4 797.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 678.25 ₴ +880.73 ₴ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 19 658.84 ₴ −7 943.10 (−40.4%)

The gain is understated: 2 outcomes have no price, that is 9.2% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0079

7 899.43 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0209

Steam

×2

MP9 | Starlight Protector

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0079

9 595.04 ₴

at 4 797.52

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Nightwish (Factory New) — 5 678.25 ₴ +880.73 ₴ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0099

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 17 494.46 ₴ −6 790.51 (−38.8%)

What you get 43 outcomes

Profitable outcome 10%
Losing outcome 71%
About break-even 6%
Above the Steam cap 12%

Order

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

12 672.43 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

10 906.73 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

9 031.99 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 475.64 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

17 873.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 920.67 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 055.92 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 800.62 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 013.59 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 660.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

9 955.87 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

81 119.78 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

36 946.21 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

76 163.77 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

53 668.97 ₴ 0.67%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

38 377.98 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

32 038.35 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 124.01 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

4 518.50 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

7 269.67 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

8 948.90 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 699.42 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

4 384.82 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

5 088.20 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

2 910.69 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 723.17 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

4 250.08 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

3 035.92 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 340.57 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

8 587.78 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

4 317.25 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

8 344.72 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

7 699.28 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 318.62 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

2 925.19 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

10 987.60 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number 5 phases, price averaged

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Freehand

Factory New

float up to 0.006486

3 869.10 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Lore

Factory New

float up to 0.008783

7 137.47 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic

Factory New

float up to 0.011486

9 036.63 ₴ 0.67%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

4 966.48 ₴ 0.67%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Bright Water

Factory New

float up to 0.006756

3 717.94 ₴ 0.67%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New) × 4 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.37 10 532.57 → 24 909.52 ₴

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 4 797.52 → 10 362.64 ₴

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.013513414

outcomes come out up to 0.001081, 0.013378, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.013513, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.069999, 0.000000, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.013513, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756, 0.001081, 0.006486, 0.008783, 0.011486, 0.013513, 0.006756

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The CS20 Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Clutch Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −6 627.02 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −5 788.55 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Dreams & Nightmares Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3358315 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 221.97₴ · invest 16 413.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.005961 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358316 · The CS20 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit −5 221.97₴ · invest 16 413.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.005961 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358087 · The CS20 Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit −5 345.06₴ · invest 16 536.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007239 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358088 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 345.06₴ · invest 16 536.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007239 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358273 · The Huntsman Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 345.47₴ · invest 14 018.87₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358274 · The CS20 Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −5 345.47₴ · invest 14 018.87₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358287 · The Prisma Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 501.39₴ · invest 14 723.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358288 · The CS20 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −5 501.39₴ · invest 14 723.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007166 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358267 · The Gamma Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 501.57₴ · invest 16 916.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.006858 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358268 · The CS20 Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −5 501.57₴ · invest 16 916.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.006858 instead of 0.007304
Craft 3358255 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 637.91₴ · invest 15 330.09₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The CS20 Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 43 outcomes

More

How to build