The Huntsman Collection + The CS20 Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −23 766.54₴

Invest at least 32 439.94₴

Average return 8 673.39₴

ROI −73.3%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 32 439.94 ₴, profit at most −23 766.54 ₴

float premium: at least 16 732 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 16.9% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −6 487.35 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0

×1

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

3 486.30 ₴

at 3 486.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 355.07 ₴ +32 868.77 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0092

Steam

×4

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0071

10 532.57 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0198

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 14 018.87 ₴ −5 345.48 (−38.1%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 21.5% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

13 945.20 ₴

at 3 486.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 355.07 ₴ +32 868.77 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×1

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0087

2 633.14 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0220

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 16 578.35 ₴ −7 925.96 (−47.8%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 20.0% of the chance

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

10 458.90 ₴

at 3 486.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 355.07 ₴ +32 868.77 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0104

Steam

×2

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

5 266.28 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0212

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 15 725.19 ₴ −7 065.79 (−44.9%)

The gain is understated: 5 outcomes have no price, that is 18.5% of the chance

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0

×2

M4A4 | Desert-Strike

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

6 972.60 ₴

at 3 486.30

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Vulcan (Factory New) — 36 355.07 ₴ +32 868.77 ₴ per item · on the market 20 · buy 0.0000–0.0098

Steam

×3

FAMAS | Commemoration

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

7 899.43 ₴

at 2 633.14

if this one runs out, you can take

AWP | Wildfire (Factory New) — 6 816.87 ₴ +4 183.73 ₴ per item · on the market 38 · buy 0.0100–0.0205

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 14 872.03 ₴ −6 205.63 (−41.7%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 15%
Losing outcome 68%
Above the Steam cap 17%

Order

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

12 672.43 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

10 906.73 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

9 031.99 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

7 475.64 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Classic Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

17 873.17 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 920.67 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

8 055.92 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Classic Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

24 800.62 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

12 013.59 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

7 660.65 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Classic Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Classic Knife

no wear

9 955.87 ₴ 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

12 718.13 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

13 728.07 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

14 955.92 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

13 212.50 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

15 299.66 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 923.70 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

23 190.67 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Huntsman Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

19 365.76 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Huntsman Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 191.84 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Huntsman Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Huntsman Knife

no wear

5 662.32 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Huntsman Collection + The CS20 Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 3 The Clutch Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The CS20 Collection Variant 5 The Glove Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Huntsman Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −6 165.35 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −5 470.50 ₴ historical median

2% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The CS20 Collection and The Huntsman Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 11 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3358315 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 221.97₴ · invest 16 413.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.005961 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358316 · The CS20 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit −5 221.97₴ · invest 16 413.63₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.005961 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358087 · The CS20 Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit −5 345.06₴ · invest 16 536.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007239 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358088 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 345.06₴ · invest 16 536.72₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007239 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358274 · The CS20 Collection + The Huntsman Collection · profit −5 345.47₴ · invest 14 018.87₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3358287 · The Prisma Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 501.39₴ · invest 14 723.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 3358288 · The CS20 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit −5 501.39₴ · invest 14 723.70₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New)
Craft 3358267 · The Gamma Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 501.57₴ · invest 16 916.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.006858 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358268 · The CS20 Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −5 501.57₴ · invest 16 916.48₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.006858 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358255 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The CS20 Collection · profit −5 637.91₴ · invest 15 330.09₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007304 instead of 0.007166
Craft 3358256 · The CS20 Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −5 637.91₴ · invest 15 330.09₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | Desert-Strike (Factory New); FAMAS | Commemoration (Factory New): float at most 0.007304 instead of 0.007166

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Huntsman Collection + The CS20 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build