The Snakebite Collection + The Falchion Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −671.07$

Invest at least 1 227.10$

Average return 556.03$

ROI −54.7%

Chance of profit 10%

With float: invest at least 1 227.10 $, profit at most −671.07 $

float premium: at least 652 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −238 $

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 6.4% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −265.37 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

376.68 $

at 94.17

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 125.42 $ +31.25 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0141

Steam

×1

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0111

155.67 $

at 155.67

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.40 $ +64.73 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0111

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 532.35 $ +23.68 (+4.5%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 13.1% of the chance

3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈2

×1

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0128

94.17 $

at 94.17

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 125.42 $ +31.25 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0162

Steam

×4

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0128

622.68 $

at 155.67

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.40 $ +64.73 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0128

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 716.85 $ −461.41 (−64.4%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 10.9% of the chance

3% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈2

×2

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0122

188.34 $

at 94.17

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 125.42 $ +31.25 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0154

Steam

×3

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0122

467.01 $

at 155.67

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.40 $ +64.73 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0122

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 655.35 $ −299.71 (−45.7%)

The gain is understated: 3 outcomes have no price, that is 8.7% of the chance

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | In Living Color

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0116

282.51 $

at 94.17

if this one runs out, you can take

USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New) — 125.42 $ +31.25 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0147

Steam

×2

AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0116

311.34 $

at 155.67

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Factory New) — 220.40 $ +64.73 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0116

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 593.85 $ −138.02 (−23.2%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 50%
About break-even 7%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Desert Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

215.26 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Hand Wraps | CAUTION!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

614.41 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Giraffe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

153.04 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Constrictor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

230.21 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Blood Pressure

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

783.86 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Finish Line

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

222.75 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | 3rd Commando Company

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

217.48 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

724.61 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Snow Leopard

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 753.89 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

417.38 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Rezan the Red

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

643.36 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Black Tie

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 093.68 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

852.05 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 500.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Lt. Commander

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

507.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

955.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 266.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Big Game

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

650.00 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 690.53 $ 3.33%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Sport Gloves | Slingshot

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.33%

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Needle Point

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

186.29 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

599.22 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Yellow-banded

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

380.07 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Broken Fang Gloves | Unhinged

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

357.22 $ 3.33%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

228.19 $ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

296.36 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

301.38 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

156.42 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

361.64 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

139.77 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

99.34 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

300.00 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

144.96 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

123.23 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Falchion Knife

no wear

113.07 $ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Snakebite Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Snakebite Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −8.00 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +19.07 $ historical median

7% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Snakebite Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3358845 · The Falchion Collection + The Snakebite Collection · profit 23.68$ · invest 532.35$
profit on prices without salesat least −238 $ no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Snakebite Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build