The Wildfire Collection + The Glove Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −764.93$

Invest at least 2 903.09$

Average return 2 138.17$

ROI −26.4%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 2 903.09 $, profit at most −764.93 $

float premium: at least 1 569 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +1 240.43 $ по средним

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 16.7% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat / Market.CSGO: without them the profit is −1 166.06 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1

×2

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

178.50 $

at 89.25

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 512.71 $ +423.46 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0115

Steam

×3

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

1 110.00 $

at 370.00

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.23 $ +180.23 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0103

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 288.50 $ +849.66 (+65.9%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 21.0% of the chance

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −50 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

357.01 $

at 89.25

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 512.71 $ +423.46 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0127

Steam

×1

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0081

370.00 $

at 370.00

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.23 $ +180.23 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0114

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 727.01 $ +68.13 (+9.4%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 18.8% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1

×3

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

267.75 $

at 89.25

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 512.71 $ +423.46 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0121

Steam

×2

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

740.00 $

at 370.00

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.23 $ +180.23 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 007.75 $ +458.90 (+45.5%)

The gain is understated: 6 outcomes have no price, that is 14.6% of the chance

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1

×1

M4A4 | The Battlestar

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

89.25 $

at 89.25

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Factory New) — 512.71 $ +423.46 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0110

Steam

×4

SSG 08 | Dragonfire

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0070

1 480.00 $

at 370.00

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Factory New) — 550.23 $ +180.23 $ per item · on the market 45 · buy 0.0000–0.0098

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 1 569.25 $ +1 240.43 (+79.0%)

What you get 37 outcomes

Profitable outcome 20%
Losing outcome 63%
Above the Steam cap 17%

Order

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

226.51 $ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

262.23 $ 3.08%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

285.29 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

181.82 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

277.93 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

155.26 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

132.05 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Bowie Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

83.08 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Bowie Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

155.32 $ 3.08%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Bowie Knife

no wear

88.57 $ 3.08%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Spruce DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

749.11 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Badlands

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

675.70 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Leather

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

851.62 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Hand Wraps | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 153.51 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Eclipse

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

655.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Spearmint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 450.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Moto Gloves | Boom!

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

769.71 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

2 181.50 $ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Lunar Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 140.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Driver Gloves | Convoy

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

520.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Driver Gloves | Crimson Weave

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

1 885.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Driver Gloves | Diamondback

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

at a loss

★ Specialist Gloves | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

458.93 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 298.92 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Crimson Kimono

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

★ Specialist Gloves | Foundation

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

29 300.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Superconductor

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 129.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Arid

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 300.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

in profit

★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

21 385.00 $ 2.50%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Charred

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

726.03 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Guerrilla

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

307.32 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Bronzed

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

420.28 $ 2.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

★ Bloodhound Gloves | Snakebite

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

353.32 $ 2.50%

sell on Market.CSGO

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The Glove Collection

Variant 2 only The Glove Collection Variant 3 The Operation Hydra Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 4 The Chroma Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 5 The Operation Broken Fang Collection instead of The Wildfire Collection Variant 6 The Dead Hand Collection instead of The Glove Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +838.36 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +847.22 $ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Glove Collection and The Wildfire Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 25 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3358693 · The Glove Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 1 100.88$ · invest 1 515.65$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358694 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 100.88$ · invest 1 515.65$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Fully Tuned (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358195 · The Glove Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit 1 026.21$ · invest 1 564.61$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358196 · The Breakout Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 1 026.21$ · invest 1 564.61$
outcome without sales no outcome price marketplace price rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006756 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359057 · The Winter Offensive Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 935.65$ · invest 1 340.00$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359058 · The Glove Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 935.65$ · invest 1 340.00$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | The Kraken (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359041 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 928.05$ · invest 1 347.60$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359042 · The Glove Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 928.05$ · invest 1 347.60$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006142 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359059 · The eSports 2013 Winter Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 906.82$ · invest 1 368.83$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359060 · The Glove Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 906.82$ · invest 1 368.83$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

M4A4 | X-Ray (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.005334 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358117 · The Glove Collection + The Arms Deal 3 Collection · profit 901.40$ · invest 1 374.24$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358118 · The Arms Deal 3 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 901.40$ · invest 1 374.24$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

CZ75-Auto | Victoria (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007796 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358989 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 894.52$ · invest 1 390.96$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358990 · The Gamma Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 894.52$ · invest 1 390.96$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.006963 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358767 · The Glove Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit 888.52$ · invest 1 321.14$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358768 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 888.52$ · invest 1 321.14$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007949 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359045 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 850.13$ · invest 1 326.34$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359046 · The Glove Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 850.13$ · invest 1 326.34$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359056 · The Glove Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 849.66$ · invest 1 288.50$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3359033 · The Prisma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 838.95$ · invest 1 350.03$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359034 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 838.95$ · invest 1 350.03$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

Glock-18 | Bullet Queen (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358959 · The Glove Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 835.54$ · invest 1 449.93$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3358960 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 835.54$ · invest 1 449.93$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.008445 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359051 · The Spectrum Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 834.31$ · invest 1 400.64$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.007404
Craft 3359052 · The Glove Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 834.31$ · invest 1 400.64$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New) instead of M4A4 | The Battlestar (Factory New); SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New): float at most 0.007628 instead of 0.007404

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Wildfire Collection + The Glove Collection

How to build i Ways to build 4 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 37 outcomes

More

How to build