The Falchion Collection + The Breakout Collection

StatTrak™ Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Average profit −300.32$

Invest 571.73$

Average return 271.41$

ROI −52.5%

Chance of profit 15%

With float: invest at least 1 257.11 $, profit at most −985.69 $

float premium: at least 574 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −365.90 $

Check:

To calculator I have items

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1722

221.69 $

at 73.90

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested) — 108.05 $ +34.15 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.1500–0.1722

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

130.01 $

at 130.01

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Minimal Wear) — 201.55 $ +71.54 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0700–0.0777

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

220.03 $

at 220.03

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 400.00 $ +179.97 $ per item · on the market 5 · buy 0.0000–0.0124

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 571.73 $ −300.32 (−52.5%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 14%
Losing outcome 77%
About break-even 3%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

300.96 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

283.14 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

132.99 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

112.50 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

216.10 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

77.08 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

82.23 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

104.01 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

85.31 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

83.28 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

102.67 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Falchion Knife

no wear

148.89 $ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.009729

1 923.87 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.040405

1 421.72 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

1 188.94 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

739.36 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.121621

1 162.51 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

437.96 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

640.47 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

1 510.98 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Night

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

857.61 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

719.00 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

535.62 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

about break-even

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

676.79 $ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife

no wear

1 004.20 $ 1.54%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

float markup by input how many times more the lots with the needed float cost

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) × 3 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.26 221.69 → 501.01 $

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 130.01 → 280.82 $

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New) × 1 10% of the wear range fits at least ×2.16 220.03 → 475.28 $

The markup is taken from a check of Steam 25–26.09.2026 listings. It shows how many times the needed number of cheapest listings with a fitting float cost more than the cheapest listing of this wear. It depends on the width of the float window and on the number of items.

Average float of the set

average normalized 0.121621522

outcomes come out up to 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000, 0.009729, 0.040405, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.121621, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.149999, 0.000000

How to read float

«No higher than» — is a guarantee. The limits are calculated together: take all items with the float at the upper bound and you get exactly the result shown. With a lower float the result will be better.

f′ — the same float, brought to 0–1 by the skin's own range. CSFloat counts the same way.

I already have items

No other variants in this recount

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −325.40 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −304.74 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3361133 · The Breakout Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −300.32$ · invest 571.73$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist
Craft 3363308 · The Gamma Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −303.64$ · invest 488.30$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172525 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077835 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3363316 · The Falchion Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit −303.64$ · invest 488.30$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.172525 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077835 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3362991 · The Falchion Collection + The Dreams & Nightmares Collection · profit −329.22$ · invest 474.02$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173632 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078219 instead of 0.077745
Craft 3362999 · The Dreams & Nightmares Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit −329.22$ · invest 474.02$
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex (Factory New); StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested): float at most 0.173632 instead of 0.172268; StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078219 instead of 0.077745

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Breakout Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build