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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The 2021 Train Collection

Restricted → Classified

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −150.72$

Invest at least 303.60$

Average return 152.88$

ROI −49.6%

Chance of profit 5%

With float: invest at least 303.60 $, profit at most −150.72 $

float premium: at least 168 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −7 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×1

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

29.68 $

at 29.68

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) — 32.78 $ +3.11 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0707
Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New) — 33.01 $ +3.34 $ per item · on the market 97 · buy 0.0000–0.0072

souvenirSteam

×9

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

91.07 $

at 10.12

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) — 17.37 $ +7.25 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0093
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) — 17.78 $ +7.66 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0000–0.0077
P2000 | Space Race (Factory New) — 20.87 $ +10.75 $ per item · on the market 50 · buy 0.0000–0.0080

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 120.74 $ +32.14 (+26.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 $

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×2

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

59.35 $

at 29.68

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) — 32.78 $ +3.11 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0706
Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New) — 33.01 $ +3.34 $ per item · on the market 97 · buy 0.0000–0.0071

souvenirSteam

×8

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

80.95 $

at 10.12

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) — 17.37 $ +7.25 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0093
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) — 17.78 $ +7.66 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0000–0.0077
P2000 | Space Race (Factory New) — 20.87 $ +10.75 $ per item · on the market 50 · buy 0.0000–0.0079

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 140.30 $ +25.68 (+18.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −11 $

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×3

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

89.03 $

at 29.68

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) — 32.78 $ +3.11 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0705
Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New) — 33.01 $ +3.34 $ per item · on the market 97 · buy 0.0000–0.0071

souvenirSteam

×7

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

70.83 $

at 10.12

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) — 17.37 $ +7.25 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0092
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) — 17.78 $ +7.66 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0000–0.0076
P2000 | Space Race (Factory New) — 20.87 $ +10.75 $ per item · on the market 50 · buy 0.0000–0.0079

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 159.86 $ +19.23 (+12.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −13 $

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×4

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

118.70 $

at 29.68

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) — 32.78 $ +3.11 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0704
Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New) — 33.01 $ +3.34 $ per item · on the market 97 · buy 0.0000–0.0070

souvenirSteam

×6

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

60.71 $

at 10.12

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) — 17.37 $ +7.25 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0091
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) — 17.78 $ +7.66 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0000–0.0075
P2000 | Space Race (Factory New) — 20.87 $ +10.75 $ per item · on the market 50 · buy 0.0000–0.0078

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 179.41 $ +12.77 (+7.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −15 $

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×5

Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

148.38 $

at 29.68

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir Glock-18 | Pink DDPAT (Minimal Wear) — 32.78 $ +3.11 $ per item · on the market 37 · buy 0.0700–0.0703
Souvenir AUG | Sand Storm (Factory New) — 33.01 $ +3.34 $ per item · on the market 97 · buy 0.0000–0.0070

souvenirSteam

×5

Nova | Red Quartz

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

50.59 $

at 10.12

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Syndicate (Factory New) — 17.37 $ +7.25 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0090
MP5-SD | Autumn Twilly (Factory New) — 17.78 $ +7.66 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.0000–0.0075
P2000 | Space Race (Factory New) — 20.87 $ +10.75 $ per item · on the market 50 · buy 0.0000–0.0077

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 198.97 $ +6.31 (+3.2%)

What you get 5 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

at a loss

FAMAS | Meltdown

Factory New

float up to 0.005405

76.06 $ 30.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

MAC-10 | Propaganda

Factory New

float up to 0.008378

74.02 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

USP-S | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

332.17 $ 30.00%

rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox

Factory New

float up to 0.010810

408.57 $ 5.00%

rarely sells

Steam

in profit

MP5-SD | Oxide Oasis

Factory New

float up to 0.007432

214.22 $ 5.00%

rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The 2021 Train Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection Variant 5 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 6 The Phoenix Collection instead of The 2021 Train Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −6.05 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +24.77 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The 2021 Train Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 6 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3370261 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Graphic Design Collection · profit 33.00$ · invest 104.76$
profit on prices without salesat least −18 $ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Slalom (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005571 instead of 0.005361
Craft 3370157 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Bravo Collection · profit 32.34$ · invest 114.40$
profit on prices without salesat least −15 $ marketplace price rare inputs

M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.004181 instead of 0.005361
Craft 3370143 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Arabesque Collection · profit 31.64$ · invest 105.08$
profit on prices without salesat least −18 $ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Ifrit Lattice (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005750 instead of 0.005361
Craft 3370382 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Spy Tech Collection · profit 31.26$ · invest 103.21$
profit on prices without salesat least −12 $ rare inputs

CZ75-Auto | Hydraulics (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005750 instead of 0.005361
Craft 3370293 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Operation Broken Fang Collection · profit 30.86$ · invest 109.47$
profit on prices without salesat least −8 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Gold Bismuth (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005647 instead of 0.005361
Craft 3370139 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Anubis Collection · profit 29.96$ · invest 106.24$
profit on prices without salesat least −20 $ rare inputs

Nova | Sobek's Bite (Factory New) instead of Souvenir XM1014 | Elegant Vines (Factory New); Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New): float at most 0.005750 instead of 0.005361

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The 2021 Train Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 5 outcomes

More

How to build