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The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Italy Collection

Consumer Grade → Industrial Grade

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −0.44$

Invest at least 1.22$

Average return 0.78$

ROI −36.4%

Chance of profit 20%

With float: invest at least 1.22 $, profit at most −0.44 $

float premium: at least 1 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +0.38 $ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

0.19 $

at 0.06

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Minimal Wear) — 0.06 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 1 219 · buy 0.0700–0.0771
Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask (Minimal Wear) — 0.08 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 1 449 · buy 0.0700–0.0925
Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Minimal Wear) — 0.09 $ +0.02 $ per item · on the market 1 354 · buy 0.0700–0.0848

souvenirSteam

×1

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

0.08 $

at 0.08

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 3 248 · buy 0.0000–0.0592
Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0678
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0617

souvenirSteam

×6

AUG | Contractor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0740

0.25 $

at 0.04

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 891 · buy 0.0700–0.0740
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 1 301 · buy 0.0700–0.0740
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 811 · buy 0.0700–0.0740

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 0.52 $ +0.26 (+50.6%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

0.38 $

at 0.08

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 3 248 · buy 0.0000–0.0608
Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0697
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0633

souvenirSteam

×4

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

0.60 $

at 0.15

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0060
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0055
Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 2 127 · buy 0.0000–0.0048

souvenirSteam

×1

AUG | Contractor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0760

0.04 $

at 0.04

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 891 · buy 0.0700–0.0760
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 1 301 · buy 0.0700–0.0760
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 811 · buy 0.0700–0.0760

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1.02 $ +0.38 (+37.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

0.38 $

at 0.08

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 3 248 · buy 0.0000–0.0603
Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0691
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0628

souvenirSteam

×3

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0047

0.45 $

at 0.15

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0054
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0049
Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 2 127 · buy 0.0000–0.0043

souvenirSteam

×2

AUG | Contractor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

0.08 $

at 0.04

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 891 · buy 0.0700–0.0754
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 1 301 · buy 0.0700–0.0754
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 811 · buy 0.0700–0.0754

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 0.91 $ +0.36 (+39.7%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1646

0.04 $

at 0.04

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Field-Tested) — 0.05 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 3 614 · buy 0.1500–0.1509
Souvenir P250 | Drought (Minimal Wear) — 0.06 $ +0.02 $ per item · on the market 1 887 · buy 0.0700–0.1207
Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Minimal Wear) — 0.06 $ +0.02 $ per item · on the market 1 504 · buy 0.0700–0.1317

souvenirSteam

×2

AUG | Contractor

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1646

0.06 $

at 0.03

if this one runs out, you can take

PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Field-Tested) — 0.03 $ · on the market 3 810 · buy 0.1500–0.1646
Nova | Sand Dune (Field-Tested) — 0.03 $ · on the market 2 377 · buy 0.1500–0.1646
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Field-Tested) — 0.03 $ · on the market 2 911 · buy 0.1500–0.1646

Steam

×7

AUG | Contractor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

0.30 $

at 0.04

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 891 · buy 0.0700–0.0750
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 1 301 · buy 0.0700–0.0750
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 811 · buy 0.0700–0.0750

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 0.40 $ +0.00 (+1.1%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

Souvenir MAC-10 | Sienna Damask

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

0.38 $

at 0.08

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 3 248 · buy 0.0000–0.0597
Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0685
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.08 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0622

souvenirSteam

×2

Souvenir SSG 08 | Prey

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

0.30 $

at 0.15

if this one runs out, you can take

Souvenir MAG-7 | Navy Sheen (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 1 963 · buy 0.0000–0.0047
Souvenir PP-Bizon | Anolis (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 2 574 · buy 0.0000–0.0043
Souvenir P250 | Drought (Factory New) — 0.15 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 2 127 · buy 0.0000–0.0038

souvenirSteam

×3

AUG | Contractor

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0747

0.13 $

at 0.04

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 891 · buy 0.0700–0.0747
Tec-9 | Groundwater (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 1 301 · buy 0.0700–0.0747
PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Minimal Wear) — 0.05 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 811 · buy 0.0700–0.0747

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 0.80 $ +0.34 (+42.9%)

What you get 10 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

in profit

CZ75-Auto | Midnight Palm

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

1.31 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

Dual Berettas | Drift Wood

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

1.47 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

best

FAMAS | CaliCamo

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

3.01 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

P90 | Verdant Growth

Factory New

float up to 0.032899

1.19 $ 10.00%

Steam

in profit

Dual Berettas | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

0.75 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

P2000 | Granite Marbleized

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

0.18 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

M4A1-S | Boreal Forest

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

0.34 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

Nova | Candy Apple

Factory New

float up to 0.020999

0.26 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

UMP-45 | Gunsmoke

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.111799

0.18 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

XM1014 | CaliCamo

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

0.24 $ 10.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Italy Collection

Variant 2 The Safehouse Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection Variant 3 The Safehouse Collection instead of The Italy Collection Variant 4 The Lake Collection instead of The Italy Collection Variant 5 The Dust 2 Collection instead of The Italy Collection Variant 6 The Lake Collection instead of The 2021 Mirage Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.10 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +0.19 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The 2021 Mirage Collection and The Italy Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The 2021 Mirage Collection + The Italy Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 10 outcomes

More

How to build