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Crafts · The Breakout Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Breakout Collection + The Prisma Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +26.45$

Invest 81.77$

Average return 108.22$

ROI +32.4%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 193.95 $, profit at most −85.73 $

float premium: at least 110 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1669

19.55 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0500
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1168

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4905

17.77 $

at 5.92

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.48 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3764
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred) — 9.94 $ +4.02 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.4500–0.5050

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1669

44.44 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2790
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1001

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 81.77 $ +26.45 (+32.4%)

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1840

39.11 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0552
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1288

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3903

18.97 $

at 6.32

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.08 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3227
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) — 11.09 $ +4.76 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.3800–0.4470

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1840

37.04 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2975
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1320

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 95.11 $ +21.64 (+22.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −9 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1757

58.66 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0527
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1230

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3878

18.97 $

at 6.32

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.08 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3213
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) — 11.09 $ +4.76 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.3800–0.4455

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1757

29.63 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2885
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1166

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 107.26 $ +18.03 (+16.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −49 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1728

117.32 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0518
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1209

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3869

12.65 $

at 6.32

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.08 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3208
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) — 11.09 $ +4.76 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.3800–0.4450

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1728

14.81 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2853
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.1111

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 144.78 $ +6.11 (+4.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −22 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

78.21 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0498
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1162

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3848

18.97 $

at 6.32

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested) — 7.41 $ +1.08 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.1500–0.3197
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn) — 11.09 $ +4.76 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.3800–0.4438

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1660

22.22 $

at 7.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) — 12.37 $ +4.96 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.2500–0.2780
StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Minimal Wear) — 21.94 $ +14.53 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0700–0.0985

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 119.41 $ +14.42 (+12.1%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.131249

75.03 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Emperor

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.149999

154.24 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.093749

210.55 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Field-Tested

float up to 0.172499

215.04 $ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Prisma Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Prisma Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Prisma Collection Variant 5 The Shadow Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Breakout Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.16 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +20.77 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Prisma Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3392517 · The Glove Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 28.86$ · invest 73.11$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.484068 instead of 0.490513; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164247 instead of 0.166941
Craft 3391263 · The Gamma Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 28.78$ · invest 73.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.479297 instead of 0.490513; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162251 instead of 0.166941
Craft 3380980 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 27.24$ · invest 74.86$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Momentum (Battle-Scarred): float at most 0.484728 instead of 0.490513; StatTrak™ XM1014 | Incinegator (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164522 instead of 0.166941
Craft 3390652 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Prisma Collection · profit 27.15$ · invest 73.33$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)
Craft 3398220 · The Prisma Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 26.50$ · invest 73.80$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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