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Crafts · The Breakout Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

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The Breakout Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +81.63$

Invest 115.02$

Average return 196.65$

ROI +71.0%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 285.68 $, profit at most −89.02 $

float premium: at least 158 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −105 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Share of fitting lots unknown: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1684

19.55 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0505
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1179

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.3856

8.89 $

at 8.89

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Well-Worn) — 9.66 $ +0.77 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.3800–0.4137
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Field-Tested) — 28.27 $ +19.38 $ per item · on the market 39 · buy 0.1500–0.2583

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1684

86.58 $

at 10.82

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) — 69.27 $ +58.44 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0401
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) — 111.21 $ +100.39 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0268

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 115.02 $ +81.63 (+71.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −107 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1848

39.11 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0554
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1293

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1848

86.58 $

at 10.82

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) — 69.27 $ +58.44 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0631
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) — 111.21 $ +100.39 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0423

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 125.69 $ +71.11 (+56.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −106 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1753

58.66 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0526
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1227

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1753

75.76 $

at 10.82

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) — 69.27 $ +58.44 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0498
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) — 111.21 $ +100.39 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0333

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 134.42 $ +62.52 (+46.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −129 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1687

78.21 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0506
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1181

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0057

64.96 $

at 32.48

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Factory New) — 43.15 $ +10.67 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.0000–0.0190
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Factory New) — 61.99 $ +29.51 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0000–0.0133

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1687

43.29 $

at 10.82

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) — 69.27 $ +58.44 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0404
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) — 111.21 $ +100.39 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0271

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 186.46 $ +10.90 (+5.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −105 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1652

78.21 $

at 19.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) — 32.48 $ +12.93 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.0000–0.0495
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) — 35.84 $ +16.29 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0700–0.1157

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1652

64.93 $

at 10.82

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Factory New) — 69.27 $ +58.44 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0356
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Point Disarray (Factory New) — 111.21 $ +100.39 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 143.15 $ +53.93 (+37.7%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 0%
About break-even 45%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Royal Paladin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

325.52 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

about break-even

worst

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

126.46 $ 45.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

float up to 0.043749

220.07 $ 5.00%

rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ P90 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.080499

235.18 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Revolver Case Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection Variant 5 The Fever Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Revolver Case Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +57.17 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +79.92 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Revolver Case Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3392618 · The Glove Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 88.28$ · invest 106.37$
profit on prices without salesat least −97 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P90 | Shallow Grave (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384299 instead of 0.385624; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164127 instead of 0.168479
Craft 3390740 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 86.36$ · invest 106.59$
profit on prices without salesat least −97 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)
Craft 3399580 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 85.33$ · invest 108.86$
profit on prices without salesat least −109 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)
Craft 3399500 · The Revolver Case Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 85.15$ · invest 107.06$
profit on prices without salesat least −107 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)
Craft 3384131 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 83.89$ · invest 103.29$
profit on prices without salesat least −97 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384624 instead of 0.385624; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165194 instead of 0.168479
Craft 3381079 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 83.02$ · invest 108.12$
profit on prices without salesat least −108 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Primal Saber (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn): float at most 0.384434 instead of 0.385624; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164569 instead of 0.168479
Craft 3396550 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 82.56$ · invest 113.81$
profit on prices without salesat least −114 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested)
Craft 3397339 · The Phoenix Collection + The Revolver Case Collection · profit 79.82$ · invest 111.19$
profit on prices without salesat least −111 $ rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Fowl Play (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn): float at most 0.386472 instead of 0.385624; StatTrak™ G3SG1 | The Executioner (Field-Tested): float at most 0.171267 instead of 0.168479

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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