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The Danger Zone Collection + The Falchion Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −152.36$

Invest at least 374.92$

Average return 222.56$

ROI −40.6%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 374.92 $, profit at most −152.36 $

float premium: at least 194 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +80.25 $ по средним

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −140 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

33.03 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0047
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0062

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

10.57 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1628
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0521

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

109.44 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0744
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 153.05 $ +69.51 (+45.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −124 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0062

66.07 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0075
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0100

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1705

21.15 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1705
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0545

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0771

62.54 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0771
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0246

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 149.75 $ +42.97 (+28.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −151 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

16.52 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0068
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0091

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0765

140.71 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0765
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0244

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 157.23 $ +80.25 (+51.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −113 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0049

82.59 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0059
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0079

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

31.72 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1663
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0532

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

31.27 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0756
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0242

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 145.57 $ +32.24 (+22.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −134 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

11.05 $

at 11.05

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear) — 17.39 $ +6.34 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0700–0.1209
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear) — 19.88 $ +8.83 $ per item · on the market 61 · buy 0.0700–0.0907

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

33.03 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0058
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0078

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0755

109.44 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0755
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0241

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 153.52 $ +54.12 (+35.3%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 80%
Losing outcome 20%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

314.98 $ 40.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.54 $ 40.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.095499

148.14 $ 10.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

89.27 $ 10.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Danger Zone Collection + The Falchion Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Danger Zone Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Fever Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Danger Zone Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +30.90 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +57.16 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Falchion Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3386965 · The Falchion Collection + The Fracture Collection · profit 64.55$ · invest 117.92$
profit on prices without salesat least −118 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Entombed (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 1; StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166322 instead of 0.162896; StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): 2 pcs instead of 7; StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075677 instead of 0.074485
Craft 3377590 · The CS20 Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 59.97$ · invest 149.49$
profit on prices without salesat least −140 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New); StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested): 2 pcs instead of 1; StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Field-Tested): float at most 0.168648 instead of 0.162896; StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): 4 pcs instead of 7; StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076486 instead of 0.074485

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Danger Zone Collection + The Falchion Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 4 outcomes

More

How to build