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Crafts · The Danger Zone Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Danger Zone Collection + The Genesis Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +135.51$

Invest 163.13$

Average return 298.64$

ROI +83.1%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 422.22 $, profit at most −123.59 $

float premium: at least 243 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +136.90 $ по средним

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −163 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 9 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

148.65 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0088
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1743

14.48 $

at 14.48

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) — 16.57 $ +2.09 $ per item · on the market 42 · buy 0.1500–0.1743
StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) — 17.11 $ +2.63 $ per item · on the market 72 · buy 0.1500–0.1743

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 163.13 $ +135.51 (+83.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −353 $

2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

66.07 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0081
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0108

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0777

91.41 $

at 30.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) — 36.23 $ +5.76 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.0700–0.0777
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) — 41.98 $ +11.51 $ per item · on the market 47 · buy 0.0700–0.0777

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0067

195.66 $

at 65.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) — 88.03 $ +22.81 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0000–0.0067
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Factory New) — 93.73 $ +28.51 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0000–0.0067

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 353.14 $ +22.22 (+6.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −304 $

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

82.59 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0075
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0101

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0772

91.41 $

at 30.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) — 36.23 $ +5.76 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.0700–0.0772
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) — 41.98 $ +11.51 $ per item · on the market 47 · buy 0.0700–0.0772

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0063

130.44 $

at 65.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) — 88.03 $ +22.81 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0000–0.0063
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Factory New) — 93.73 $ +28.51 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0000–0.0063

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 304.44 $ +55.58 (+18.3%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −256 $

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

99.10 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0071
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0095

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0767

91.41 $

at 30.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) — 36.23 $ +5.76 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.0700–0.0767
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) — 41.98 $ +11.51 $ per item · on the market 47 · buy 0.0700–0.0767

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0059

65.22 $

at 65.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Factory New) — 88.03 $ +22.81 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0000–0.0059
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Factory New) — 93.73 $ +28.51 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0000–0.0059

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 255.73 $ +88.94 (+34.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −207 $

≈1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0056

115.62 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0067
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0089

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

91.41 $

at 30.47

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) — 36.23 $ +5.76 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.0700–0.0764
StatTrak™ MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) — 41.98 $ +11.51 $ per item · on the market 47 · buy 0.0700–0.0764

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 207.03 $ +122.30 (+59.1%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

562.31 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir

Factory New

float up to 0.015384

89.27 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Oligarch

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

530.11 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Full Throttle

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

474.37 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Danger Zone Collection + The Genesis Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Danger Zone Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Genesis Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Genesis Collection Variant 5 The Fever Collection instead of The Genesis Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Genesis Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +118.91 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +133.05 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Genesis Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3384217 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shattered Web Collection · profit 145.71$ · invest 166.23$
profit on prices without salesat least −147 $ marketplace price rare inputs

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested)
Craft 3384183 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 138.74$ · invest 168.66$
profit on prices without salesat least −169 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.006513 instead of 0.007408

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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