The Danger Zone Collection — craft

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈6, цена занижена

×6

P250 | Nevermore

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0035

12.00 $

at 2.00

if this one runs out, you can take

Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +0.21 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0044
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) — 2.93 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 467 · buy 0.0000–0.0044
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) — 3.30 $ +1.30 $ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0057

Steam

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1616

4.51 $

at 1.13

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) — 1.30 $ +0.17 $ per item · on the market 161 · buy 0.1500–0.1616
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) — 3.50 $ +2.37 $ per item · on the market 623 · buy 0.0700–0.0808
G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) — 4.02 $ +2.89 $ per item · on the market 109 · buy 0.0700–0.1131

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 16.51 $ +29.57 (+179.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

G3SG1 | Scavenger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

3.61 $

at 0.90

if this one runs out, you can take

MAC-10 | Pipe Down (Minimal Wear) — 1.40 $ +0.50 $ per item · on the market 88 · buy 0.0700–0.1051
P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) — 2.00 $ +1.10 $ per item · on the market 512 · buy 0.0000–0.0467
Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +1.31 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0584

Steam

×5

P250 | Nevermore

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

10.00 $

at 2.00

if this one runs out, you can take

Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +0.21 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0065
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) — 2.93 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 467 · buy 0.0000–0.0065
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) — 3.30 $ +1.30 $ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0084

Steam

×1

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1671

1.13 $

at 1.13

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) — 1.30 $ +0.17 $ per item · on the market 161 · buy 0.1500–0.1671
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) — 3.50 $ +2.37 $ per item · on the market 623 · buy 0.0700–0.0835
G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) — 4.02 $ +2.89 $ per item · on the market 109 · buy 0.0700–0.1170

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 14.73 $ +6.65 (+45.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

MAC-10 | Pipe Down

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0746

5.61 $

at 1.40

if this one runs out, you can take

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New) — 2.00 $ +0.60 $ per item · on the market 512 · buy 0.0000–0.0331
Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +0.81 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0414
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) — 2.93 $ +1.53 $ per item · on the market 467 · buy 0.0000–0.0414

Steam

×4

P250 | Nevermore

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0041

8.00 $

at 2.00

if this one runs out, you can take

Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +0.21 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0051
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) — 2.93 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 467 · buy 0.0000–0.0051
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) — 3.30 $ +1.30 $ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0066

Steam

×2

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1634

2.25 $

at 1.13

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) — 1.30 $ +0.17 $ per item · on the market 161 · buy 0.1500–0.1634
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) — 3.50 $ +2.37 $ per item · on the market 623 · buy 0.0700–0.0817
G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) — 4.02 $ +2.89 $ per item · on the market 109 · buy 0.0700–0.1144

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 15.87 $ +13.75 (+86.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −33 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

P250 | Nevermore

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

2.00 $

at 2.00

if this one runs out, you can take

Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +0.21 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0048
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) — 2.93 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 467 · buy 0.0000–0.0048
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) — 3.30 $ +1.30 $ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0063

Steam

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

4.51 $

at 1.13

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) — 1.30 $ +0.17 $ per item · on the market 161 · buy 0.1500–0.1628
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) — 3.50 $ +2.37 $ per item · on the market 623 · buy 0.0700–0.0814
G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) — 4.02 $ +2.89 $ per item · on the market 109 · buy 0.0700–0.1139

Steam

×5

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

37.28 $

at 7.46

if this one runs out, you can take

G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) — 10.29 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 62 · buy 0.0000–0.0054
MP7 | Powercore (Factory New) — 10.96 $ +3.50 $ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0062
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) — 13.34 $ +5.89 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.0000–0.0077

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 43.79 $ +43.46 (+99.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −28 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

P250 | Nevermore

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

4.00 $

at 2.00

if this one runs out, you can take

Galil AR | Signal (Factory New) — 2.21 $ +0.21 $ per item · on the market 392 · buy 0.0000–0.0047
USP-S | Flashback (Factory New) — 2.93 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 467 · buy 0.0000–0.0047
G3SG1 | Scavenger (Factory New) — 3.30 $ +1.30 $ per item · on the market 59 · buy 0.0000–0.0062

Steam

×4

Nova | Toy Soldier

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

4.51 $

at 1.13

if this one runs out, you can take

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Field-Tested) — 1.30 $ +0.17 $ per item · on the market 161 · buy 0.1500–0.1625
AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear) — 3.50 $ +2.37 $ per item · on the market 623 · buy 0.0700–0.0812
G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear) — 4.02 $ +2.89 $ per item · on the market 109 · buy 0.0700–0.1137

Steam

×4

AWP | PAW

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

29.83 $

at 7.46

if this one runs out, you can take

G3SG1 | High Seas (Factory New) — 10.29 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 62 · buy 0.0000–0.0053
MP7 | Powercore (Factory New) — 10.96 $ +3.50 $ per item · on the market 86 · buy 0.0000–0.0061
CZ75-Auto | Eco (Factory New) — 13.34 $ +5.89 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.0000–0.0076

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 38.34 $ +40.68 (+106.1%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 40%
About break-even 13%

in profit

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries

Factory New

float up to 0.041999

22.38 $ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

MP5-SD | Phosphor

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

12.66 $ 20.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

10.32 $ 20.00%

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Eye of Athena

Factory New

float up to 0.048999

34.93 $ 13.33%

Steam

in profit

best

M4A1-S | Nightmare

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

275.49 $ 13.33%

price without deals

Steam

about break-even

Sawed-Off | Devourer

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

19.01 $ 13.33%

price without deals

Steam

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +21.97 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +27.17 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Horizon Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 9 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3390443 · The Gamma 2 Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 39.42$ · invest 16.06$
sells slowly rare inputs

MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162269 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3376907 · The Breakout Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 38.61$ · invest 25.08$
profit on prices without salesat least −7 $ rare inputs

P250 | Supernova (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)
Craft 3391071 · The Gamma Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 36.22$ · invest 21.82$
sells slowly rare inputs

P90 | Chopper (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164197 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3394093 · The Horizon Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 35.01$ · invest 16.95$
profit on prices without salesat least −4 $ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163660 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3389579 · The Gallery Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 33.69$ · invest 21.56$
profit on prices without salesat least −15 $ rare inputs

P90 | Randy Rush (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165540 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3387964 · The Fever Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 32.83$ · invest 14.79$
profit on prices without salesat least −1 $

Desert Eagle | Serpent Strike (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163881 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3394116 · The Horizon Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 32.30$ · invest 20.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −2 $ rare inputs

M249 | Emerald Poison Dart (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162409 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3382442 · The Clutch Collection + The Horizon Collection · profit 31.98$ · invest 15.10$
profit on prices without salesat least −2 $ rare inputs

Negev | Lionfish (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.163660 instead of 0.161675
Craft 3393920 · The Horizon Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 31.90$ · invest 13.10$
profit on prices without salesat least −2 $ rare inputs

M249 | Downtown (Factory New) instead of P250 | Nevermore (Factory New); Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164685 instead of 0.161675

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Danger Zone Collection + The Horizon Collection

How to build

What you get 6 outcomes

Craft variants

More

The Danger Zone Collection + The Horizon Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

More

How to build