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Crafts · The Danger Zone Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

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The Danger Zone Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +145.71$

Invest 166.23$

Average return 311.94$

ROI +87.7%

Chance of profit 55%

With float: invest at least 428.92 $, profit at most −116.98 $

float premium: at least 247 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +154.01 $ по средним

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −147 $

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is +126.13 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 9 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

148.65 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0088
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0118

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1743

17.58 $

at 17.58

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) — 41.02 $ +23.44 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.1500–0.2201
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear) — 102.09 $ +84.52 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0700–0.1307

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 166.23 $ +145.71 (+87.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −185 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0054

99.10 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0065
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0087

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1678

164.07 $

at 41.02

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New) — 147.18 $ +106.16 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0606
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) — 302.36 $ +261.35 $ per item · on the market 5 · buy 0.0000–0.0454

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 263.17 $ +134.71 (+51.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −152 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 8 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

132.14 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0061
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0082

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1669

17.58 $

at 17.58

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested) — 41.02 $ +23.44 $ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.1500–0.2167
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Minimal Wear) — 102.09 $ +84.52 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0700–0.1251

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1669

41.02 $

at 41.02

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New) — 147.18 $ +106.16 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0584
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) — 302.36 $ +261.35 $ per item · on the market 5 · buy 0.0000–0.0438

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 190.73 $ +149.86 (+78.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −301 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

66.07 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0053
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0071

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1646

205.08 $

at 41.02

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New) — 147.18 $ +106.16 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0535
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) — 302.36 $ +261.35 $ per item · on the market 5 · buy 0.0000–0.0401

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

147.18 $

at 147.18

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) — 302.36 $ +155.18 $ per item · on the market 5 · buy 0.0000–0.0033
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear) — 520.72 $ +373.54 $ per item · on the market 1 · buy 0.1400–0.1420

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 418.33 $ +36.84 (+8.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −190 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0043

82.59 $

at 16.52

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Factory New) — 31.29 $ +14.78 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0052
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Phosphor (Factory New) — 32.54 $ +16.03 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0069

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1643

205.08 $

at 41.02

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New) — 147.18 $ +106.16 $ per item · on the market 7 · buy 0.0000–0.0528
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) — 302.36 $ +261.35 $ per item · on the market 5 · buy 0.0000–0.0396

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 287.67 $ +138.86 (+48.3%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Asiimov

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

562.31 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AWP | Neo-Noir

Factory New

float up to 0.015384

89.27 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

860.11 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker

Factory New

float up to 0.030769

399.60 $ 5.00%

sell on CSFloat

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Danger Zone Collection + The Shattered Web Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Danger Zone Collection Variant 3 The Vanguard Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection Variant 5 The Fever Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection Variant 6 The Prisma Collection instead of The Shattered Web Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +130.73 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +143.41 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Danger Zone Collection and The Shattered Web Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3384183 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 138.74$ · invest 168.66$
profit on prices without salesat least −169 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Flux (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New): float at most 0.006513 instead of 0.007408
Craft 3383669 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Genesis Collection · profit 135.51$ · invest 163.13$
profit on prices without salesat least −163 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Mirror Mosaic (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ SG 553 | Colony IV (Field-Tested)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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