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Crafts · The Dead Hand Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

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The Dead Hand Collection + The Phoenix Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit · with float −0.12$

Invest 2.81$

Average return 2.68$

ROI −4.4%

Chance of profit 46%

With float: invest 2.81 $, profit −0.12 $

float premium: 0 $ (7.1%)

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +0.54 $ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈48% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈55

×5

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer

Well-Worn

buy 0.3800–0.4306

0.96 $

at 0.19

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Well-Worn) — 0.20 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 171 · buy 0.3800–0.4306
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Well-Worn) — 0.20 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 75 · buy 0.3800–0.4306
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Well-Worn) — 0.20 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 92 · buy 0.3800–0.4306

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3164

1.01 $

at 0.25

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 83 · buy 0.1500–0.3164
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 99 · buy 0.1500–0.3164
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) — 0.29 $ +0.03 $ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.1500–0.3164

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.3164

0.55 $

at 0.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) — 0.48 $ cheaper by 0.07 $ · on the market 79 · buy 0.1500–0.1522
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) — 0.68 $ +0.12 $ per item · on the market 70 · buy 0.1500–0.1713
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) — 0.85 $ +0.30 $ per item · on the market 263 · buy 0.1500–0.3284

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2.53 $ +0.16 (+6.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4856

0.60 $

at 0.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred) — 0.16 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.4500–0.4856
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Battle-Scarred) — 0.16 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.4500–0.4856
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Battle-Scarred) — 0.19 $ +0.04 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.4500–0.4856

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

0.76 $

at 0.25

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 83 · buy 0.1500–0.1649
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 99 · buy 0.1500–0.1649
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) — 0.29 $ +0.03 $ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.1500–0.1649

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4694

0.82 $

at 0.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) — 0.48 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 79 · buy 0.1500–0.2396
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) — 0.68 $ +0.27 $ per item · on the market 70 · buy 0.1500–0.2696
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) — 0.78 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.4500–0.4595

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1649

0.55 $

at 0.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) — 0.85 $ +0.30 $ per item · on the market 263 · buy 0.1500–0.1984
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) — 1.13 $ +0.58 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0700–0.0738
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) — 1.48 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 107 · buy 0.0000–0.0656

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2.73 $ +0.41 (+15.0%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈3, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4855

0.60 $

at 0.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred) — 0.16 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.4500–0.4855
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Battle-Scarred) — 0.16 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.4500–0.4855
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Battle-Scarred) — 0.19 $ +0.04 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.4500–0.4855

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

1.01 $

at 0.25

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 83 · buy 0.1500–0.1648
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 99 · buy 0.1500–0.1648
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) — 0.29 $ +0.03 $ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.1500–0.1648

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4693

0.82 $

at 0.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) — 0.48 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 79 · buy 0.1500–0.2396
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) — 0.68 $ +0.27 $ per item · on the market 70 · buy 0.1500–0.2696
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) — 0.78 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.4500–0.4594

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2.43 $ +0.48 (+19.8%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈2, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4831

0.90 $

at 0.15

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Battle-Scarred) — 0.16 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.4500–0.4831
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Battle-Scarred) — 0.16 $ +0.01 $ per item · on the market 65 · buy 0.4500–0.4831
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Battle-Scarred) — 0.19 $ +0.04 $ per item · on the market 54 · buy 0.4500–0.4831

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

0.76 $

at 0.25

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 83 · buy 0.1500–0.1638
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 99 · buy 0.1500–0.1638
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) — 0.29 $ +0.03 $ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.1500–0.1638

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

0.48 $

at 0.48

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested) — 0.55 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 172 · buy 0.1500–0.3367
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) — 0.68 $ +0.19 $ per item · on the market 70 · buy 0.1500–0.1843
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) — 0.85 $ +0.36 $ per item · on the market 263 · buy 0.1500–0.3457

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 2.14 $ +0.54 (+25.2%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

0.25 $

at 0.25

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Fragment (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 83 · buy 0.1500–0.1638
StatTrak™ M249 | Bock Blocks (Field-Tested) — 0.26 $ +0.00 $ per item · on the market 99 · buy 0.1500–0.1638
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Field-Tested) — 0.29 $ +0.03 $ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.1500–0.1638

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Battle-Scarred

buy 0.4500–0.4680

2.05 $

at 0.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Field-Tested) — 0.48 $ +0.07 $ per item · on the market 79 · buy 0.1500–0.2388
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested) — 0.68 $ +0.27 $ per item · on the market 70 · buy 0.1500–0.2687
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred) — 0.78 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.4500–0.4582

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

2.21 $

at 0.55

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Field-Tested) — 0.85 $ +0.30 $ per item · on the market 263 · buy 0.1500–0.1975
StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Minimal Wear) — 1.13 $ +0.58 $ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0700–0.0731
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Heaven Guard (Factory New) — 1.48 $ +0.93 $ per item · on the market 107 · buy 0.0000–0.0650

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 4.52 $ +0.01 (+0.2%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 46%
Losing outcome 54%

in profit

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Firebreathing

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

3.34 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Galigator

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

1.93 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Electrum

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

4.84 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP7 | Amberline

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

1.99 $ 18.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP9 | Urban Sovereign

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

2.00 $ 18.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Sergeant

Well-Worn

float up to 0.441999

4.49 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Heat

Field-Tested

float up to 0.379999

6.11 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Pulse

Field-Tested

float up to 0.289999

5.50 $ 2.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ USP-S | Guardian

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.144399

5.79 $ 2.50%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Dead Hand Collection + The Phoenix Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection Variant 5 only The Phoenix Collection Variant 6 The Shattered Web Collection instead of The Dead Hand Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −0.18 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +0.12 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Dead Hand Collection and The Phoenix Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3385220 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Spectrum 2 Collection · profit 0.16$ · invest 2.15$
rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Morris (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Well-Worn): float at most 0.433666 instead of 0.430670; StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.326333 instead of 0.316487
Craft 3384956 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 0.16$ · invest 2.15$
rare inputs

StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Desert Strike (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Well-Worn): float at most 0.433666 instead of 0.430670; StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.326333 instead of 0.316487
Craft 3383330 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Dead Hand Collection · profit 0.16$ · invest 2.16$
rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Well-Worn): float at most 0.432002 instead of 0.430670; StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.320866 instead of 0.316487
Craft 3384672 · The Dead Hand Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 0.15$ · invest 2.28$
rare inputs

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Harvester (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Dark Polymer (Well-Worn): float at most 0.431333 instead of 0.430670; StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fusion (Field-Tested): float at most 0.318666 instead of 0.316487

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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