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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

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The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −60.25$

Invest at least 283.07$

Average return 222.83$

ROI −21.3%

Chance of profit 45%

With float: invest at least 283.07 $, profit at most −60.25 $

float premium: at least 167 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −78 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0163
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0163

Steam

×9

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

85.09 $

at 9.45

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) — 18.13 $ +8.67 $ per item · on the market 96 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) — 19.55 $ +10.10 $ per item · on the market 48 · buy 0.0700–0.0759

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 112.54 $ +110.29 (+98.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −88 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

15.63 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0243

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0163
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0163

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

75.64 $

at 9.45

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) — 18.13 $ +8.67 $ per item · on the market 96 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) — 19.55 $ +10.10 $ per item · on the market 48 · buy 0.0700–0.0759

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 118.72 $ +107.40 (+90.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −98 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

31.27 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0243

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0163
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0163

Steam

×7

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

66.18 $

at 9.45

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) — 18.13 $ +8.67 $ per item · on the market 96 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) — 19.55 $ +10.10 $ per item · on the market 48 · buy 0.0700–0.0759

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 124.90 $ +104.50 (+83.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −108 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

46.90 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0243

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0163
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0163

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

56.73 $

at 9.45

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) — 18.13 $ +8.67 $ per item · on the market 96 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) — 19.55 $ +10.10 $ per item · on the market 48 · buy 0.0700–0.0759

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 131.08 $ +101.61 (+77.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −138 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

93.81 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0243

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0052

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0163
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0163

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

28.36 $

at 9.45

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) — 18.13 $ +8.67 $ per item · on the market 96 · buy 0.0700–0.0759
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Shinobu (Minimal Wear) — 19.55 $ +10.10 $ per item · on the market 48 · buy 0.0700–0.0759

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 149.62 $ +92.93 (+62.1%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 55%
Losing outcome 45%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AWP | Printstream

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

415.57 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Bad Trip

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

89.38 $ 45.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

314.98 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.54 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Fever Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Fever Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Shadow Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Gallery Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +78.07 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +100.30 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Fever Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 8 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3388271 · The Fever Collection + The Recoil Collection · profit 111.90$ · invest 99.51$
profit on prices without salesat least −62 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ P250 | Visions (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3377624 · The CS20 Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 110.55$ · invest 101.54$
profit on prices without salesat least −64 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Death by Puppy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076256 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3383497 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Fever Collection · profit 106.30$ · invest 101.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −60 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Momentum (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076511 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3387918 · The Fever Collection + The Glove Collection · profit 104.98$ · invest 110.39$
profit on prices without salesat least −66 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076829 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3388148 · The Fever Collection + The Phoenix Collection · profit 104.79$ · invest 106.95$
profit on prices without salesat least −72 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075874 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3387862 · The Fever Collection + The Gamma Collection · profit 102.63$ · invest 110.83$
profit on prices without salesat least −76 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Bloodsport (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076395 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3388497 · The Fever Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 101.98$ · invest 118.69$
profit on prices without salesat least −61 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076627 instead of 0.075965
Craft 3387834 · The Fever Collection + The Gamma 2 Collection · profit 101.97$ · invest 116.19$
profit on prices without salesat least −71 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New); StatTrak™ UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076934 instead of 0.075965

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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