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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

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The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +75.02$

Invest 173.02$

Average return 248.04$

ROI +43.4%

Chance of profit 95%

With float: invest at least 427.51 $, profit at most −179.47 $

float premium: at least 216 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −173 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 8 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×8

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

125.08 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0119
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0119

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

20.50 $

at 20.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) — 21.74 $ +1.24 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0700–0.0929
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) — 31.82 $ +11.32 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.0836

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 173.02 $ +75.02 (+43.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −179 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

109.44 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0119
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0119

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

20.50 $

at 20.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) — 21.74 $ +1.24 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0700–0.0929
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) — 31.82 $ +11.32 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.0836

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

21.74 $

at 21.74

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) — 36.01 $ +14.27 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0595
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Factory New) — 94.97 $ +73.23 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0669

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 179.13 $ +64.55 (+36.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −185 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 6 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×6

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

93.81 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0119
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0119

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

20.50 $

at 20.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) — 21.74 $ +1.24 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0700–0.0929
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) — 31.82 $ +11.32 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.0836

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

43.49 $

at 21.74

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) — 36.01 $ +14.27 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0595
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Factory New) — 94.97 $ +73.23 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0669

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 185.24 $ +54.08 (+29.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −191 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

78.17 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0119
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0119

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

20.50 $

at 20.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) — 21.74 $ +1.24 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0700–0.0929
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) — 31.82 $ +11.32 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.0836

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

65.23 $

at 21.74

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) — 36.01 $ +14.27 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0595
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Factory New) — 94.97 $ +73.23 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0669

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 191.35 $ +43.62 (+22.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −197 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

62.54 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

27.44 $

at 27.44

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Factory New) — 49.68 $ +22.23 $ per item · on the market 10 · buy 0.0000–0.0119
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Factory New) — 76.02 $ +48.57 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0000–0.0119

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

20.50 $

at 20.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) — 21.74 $ +1.24 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0700–0.0929
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Minimal Wear) — 31.82 $ +11.32 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.0836

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Neo-Noir

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

86.97 $

at 21.74

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Factory New) — 36.01 $ +14.27 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0595
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Outsiders (Factory New) — 94.97 $ +73.23 $ per item · on the market 17 · buy 0.0000–0.0669

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 197.46 $ +33.15 (+16.8%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

314.98 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.54 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Factory New

float up to 0.051134

175.97 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Vaporwave

Factory New

float up to 0.041812

304.31 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Gallery Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 5 The Recoil Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Revolution Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +30.81 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +61.10 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Gallery Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3387337 · The Falchion Collection + The Prisma 2 Collection · profit 73.74$ · invest 171.45$
profit on prices without salesat least −171 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075965 instead of 0.074380; StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New): float at most 0.005219 instead of 0.003833
Craft 3387267 · The Falchion Collection + The Operation Riptide Collection · profit 70.37$ · invest 187.53$
profit on prices without salesat least −188 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Minimal Wear) instead of StatTrak™ P250 | Epicenter (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075965 instead of 0.074380; StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New): float at most 0.005219 instead of 0.003833

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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