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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Average profit +78.74$

Invest 162.56$

Average return 241.30$

ROI +48.4%

Chance of profit 95%

With float: invest at least 417.27 $, profit at most −175.97 $

float premium: at least 201 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −163 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 9 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×9

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

140.71 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0758
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0242

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

21.85 $

at 21.85

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) — 23.23 $ +1.38 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.0800–0.0914
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) — 431.33 $ +409.48 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.1000–0.1102

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 162.56 $ +78.74 (+48.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −169 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 8 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×8

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0801

125.08 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0801
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0256

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0088

43.71 $

at 21.85

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) — 23.23 $ +1.38 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.0800–0.0997
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) — 431.33 $ +409.48 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.1000–0.1177

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 168.78 $ +61.43 (+36.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −169 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0761

109.44 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0761
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0243

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1677

15.72 $

at 15.72

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New) — 21.85 $ +6.13 $ per item · on the market 15 · buy 0.0000–0.0392
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) — 72.80 $ +57.08 $ per item · on the market 147 · buy 0.1500–0.1785

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0053

43.71 $

at 21.85

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) — 23.23 $ +1.38 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.0800–0.0920
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) — 431.33 $ +409.48 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.1000–0.1107

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 168.87 $ +50.25 (+29.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −170 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

10.57 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1631
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0522

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

78.17 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0745
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0238

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1631

15.72 $

at 15.72

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New) — 21.85 $ +6.13 $ per item · on the market 15 · buy 0.0000–0.0372
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested) — 72.80 $ +57.08 $ per item · on the market 147 · buy 0.1500–0.1744

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

65.56 $

at 21.85

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) — 23.23 $ +1.38 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.0800–0.0889
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) — 431.33 $ +409.48 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.1000–0.1079

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 170.03 $ +37.99 (+22.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −172 $

0% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

31.72 $

at 10.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested) — 12.78 $ +2.20 $ per item · on the market 9 · buy 0.1500–0.1625
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +16.87 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0520

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

31.27 $

at 15.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) — 22.36 $ +6.73 $ per item · on the market 23 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ MP7 | Nemesis (Factory New) — 27.44 $ +11.81 $ per item · on the market 14 · buy 0.0000–0.0237

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ Nova | Antique

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0038

109.27 $

at 21.85

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear) — 23.23 $ +1.38 $ per item · on the market 18 · buy 0.0800–0.0885
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Redline (Minimal Wear) — 431.33 $ +409.48 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.1000–0.1076

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 172.26 $ +24.67 (+14.3%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

314.98 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AWP | Hyper Beast

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

265.54 $ 45.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

119.18 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov

Field-Tested

float up to 0.237399

206.18 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Phoenix Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection Variant 4 The Prisma Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection Variant 5 The Prisma Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 6 The Recoil Collection instead of The Phoenix Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +35.43 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +65.30 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Phoenix Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 2 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3387600 · The Falchion Collection + The Spectrum Collection · profit 75.94$ · invest 174.31$
profit on prices without salesat least −151 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New); StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.076627 instead of 0.075874
Craft 3376738 · The Breakout Collection + The Falchion Collection · profit 74.65$ · invest 173.19$
profit on prices without salesat least −153 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ Nova | Antique (Factory New)

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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