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Crafts · The Falchion Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

₴≈

The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −386.89₴

Invest at least 723.48₴

Average return 336.59₴

ROI −53.5%

Chance of profit 16%

With float: invest at least 723.48 ₴, profit at most −386.89 ₴

float premium: at least 397 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

A more profitable set was dropped: +35.62 ₴ по средним

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

129.64 ₴

at 32.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) — 36.69 ₴ +4.28 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0700–0.1062
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +16.10 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.1062
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) — 152.49 ₴ +120.08 ₴ per item · on the market 98 · buy 0.0700–0.0850

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

146.76 ₴

at 36.69

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +11.82 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) — 65.97 ₴ +29.28 ₴ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0000–0.0520
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 208.26 ₴ +171.57 ₴ per item · on the market 196 · buy 0.0000–0.0342

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1625

31.59 ₴

at 15.79

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) — 24.84 ₴ +9.04 ₴ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.1500–0.2032
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) — 36.58 ₴ +20.78 ₴ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.0700–0.1016
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) — 39.19 ₴ +23.40 ₴ per item · on the market 64 · buy 0.1500–0.2032

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 307.98 ₴ +28.61 (+9.3%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1648

81.53 ₴

at 20.38

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) — 22.08 ₴ +1.70 ₴ per item · on the market 170 · buy 0.1500–0.1648
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) — 32.41 ₴ +12.03 ₴ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.0700–0.1153
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) — 101.44 ₴ +81.06 ₴ per item · on the market 79 · buy 0.1500–0.1648

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

183.44 ₴

at 36.69

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +11.82 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.0751
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) — 65.97 ₴ +29.28 ₴ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0000–0.0526
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 208.26 ₴ +171.57 ₴ per item · on the market 196 · buy 0.0000–0.0345

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

40.50 ₴

at 40.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) — 57.34 ₴ +16.84 ₴ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0700–0.0939
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) — 61.32 ₴ +20.82 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0469
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) — 91.34 ₴ +50.83 ₴ per item · on the market 40 · buy 0.0000–0.0469

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 305.48 ₴ +35.62 (+11.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −12 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈1, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

32.41 ₴

at 32.41

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear) — 36.69 ₴ +4.28 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0700–0.1062
StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +16.10 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.1062
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Bunsen Burner (Minimal Wear) — 152.49 ₴ +120.08 ₴ per item · on the market 98 · buy 0.0700–0.0850

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

183.44 ₴

at 36.69

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +11.82 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.0744
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) — 65.97 ₴ +29.28 ₴ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0000–0.0520
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 208.26 ₴ +171.57 ₴ per item · on the market 196 · buy 0.0000–0.0342

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1626

99.34 ₴

at 24.84

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) — 36.58 ₴ +11.74 ₴ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.0700–0.0813
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) — 39.19 ₴ +14.35 ₴ per item · on the market 64 · buy 0.1500–0.1626
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) — 40.50 ₴ +15.67 ₴ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1301

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 315.20 ₴ +12.40 (+3.9%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

256.82 ₴

at 36.69

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +11.82 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.0743
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) — 65.97 ₴ +29.28 ₴ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0000–0.0520
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 208.26 ₴ +171.57 ₴ per item · on the market 196 · buy 0.0000–0.0341

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1623

47.38 ₴

at 15.79

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Field-Tested) — 24.84 ₴ +9.04 ₴ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.1500–0.2029
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) — 36.58 ₴ +20.78 ₴ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.0700–0.1014
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) — 39.19 ₴ +23.40 ₴ per item · on the market 64 · buy 0.1500–0.2029

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 304.20 ₴ +27.89 (+9.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −31 ₴

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

20.38 ₴

at 20.38

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested) — 22.08 ₴ +1.70 ₴ per item · on the market 170 · buy 0.1500–0.1618
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear) — 32.41 ₴ +12.03 ₴ per item · on the market 118 · buy 0.0700–0.1132
StatTrak™ Galil AR | Rocket Pop (Field-Tested) — 101.44 ₴ +81.06 ₴ per item · on the market 79 · buy 0.1500–0.1618

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

146.76 ₴

at 36.69

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ P90 | Elite Build (Minimal Wear) — 48.51 ₴ +11.82 ₴ per item · on the market 111 · buy 0.0700–0.0741
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New) — 65.97 ₴ +29.28 ₴ per item · on the market 55 · buy 0.0000–0.0518
StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 208.26 ₴ +171.57 ₴ per item · on the market 196 · buy 0.0000–0.0340

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1618

74.51 ₴

at 24.84

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear) — 36.58 ₴ +11.74 ₴ per item · on the market 67 · buy 0.0700–0.0809
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested) — 39.19 ₴ +14.35 ₴ per item · on the market 64 · buy 0.1500–0.1618
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Minimal Wear) — 40.50 ₴ +15.67 ₴ per item · on the market 29 · buy 0.0700–0.1294

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

81.01 ₴

at 40.50

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Scumbria (Minimal Wear) — 57.34 ₴ +16.84 ₴ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0700–0.0926
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) — 61.32 ₴ +20.82 ₴ per item · on the market 63 · buy 0.0000–0.0463
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Cobalt Core (Factory New) — 91.34 ₴ +50.83 ₴ per item · on the market 40 · buy 0.0000–0.0463

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 322.65 ₴ +0.45 (+0.1%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 21%
Losing outcome 63%
About break-even 16%

at a loss

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.067741

303.11 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P2000 | Handgun

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.112903

175.47 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.058709

1 053.13 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

about break-even

StatTrak™ MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.056451

354.01 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Negev | Loudmouth

Field-Tested

float up to 0.197580

101.44 ₴ 16.00%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Stone Cold

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.101612

524.88 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.112903

284.97 ₴ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

292.52 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P250 | Wingshot

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.101612

280.39 ₴ 5.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Shadow Collection

Variant 2 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Collection instead of The Falchion Collection Variant 4 The Snakebite Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 5 The Gallery Collection instead of The Shadow Collection Variant 6 The Prisma 2 Collection instead of The Shadow Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −21.52 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +23.56 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Shadow Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 3 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3384156 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 37.33₴ · invest 124.01₴
rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166818 instead of 0.162592
Craft 3381099 · The Chroma 3 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 29.32₴ · invest 118.50₴
rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Battle-Scarred) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ M249 | Nebula Crusader: Field-Tested instead of Minimal Wear; StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166456 instead of 0.162592
Craft 3384152 · The Danger Zone Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 28.93₴ · invest 121.09₴
rare inputs

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Black Sand (Field-Tested), StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fubar (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Riot (Minimal Wear), StatTrak™ Nova | Ranger (Minimal Wear); StatTrak™ MP7 | Special Delivery: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested): 3 pcs instead of 2; StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Green Marine (Field-Tested): float at most 0.170196 instead of 0.162592

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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