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The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +1 699.01₴

Invest 1 030.80₴

Average return 2 729.81₴

ROI +164.8%

Chance of profit 30%

With float: invest at least 2 694.32 ₴, profit at most +35.50 ₴

float premium: at least 1 639 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −898 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 9 шт., годных ≈16, цена занижена

×1

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

35.53 ₴

at 35.53

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 67.16 ₴ +31.63 ₴ per item · on the market 57 · buy 0.0000–0.0112
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 80.21 ₴ +44.68 ₴ per item · on the market 843 · buy 0.0000–0.0051
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 83.10 ₴ +47.57 ₴ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0000–0.0112

Steam

×9

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

995.27 ₴

at 110.59

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 141.92 ₴ +31.33 ₴ per item · on the market 482 · buy 0.0000–0.0105
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 177.87 ₴ +67.28 ₴ per item · on the market 265 · buy 0.0000–0.0090
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 497.37 ₴ +386.78 ₴ per item · on the market 180 · buy 0.0000–0.0105

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 1 030.80 ₴ +1 699.01 (+164.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −820 ₴

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈4, цена занижена

×2

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

71.06 ₴

at 35.53

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 67.16 ₴ +31.63 ₴ per item · on the market 57 · buy 0.0000–0.0111
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 80.21 ₴ +44.68 ₴ per item · on the market 843 · buy 0.0000–0.0051
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 83.10 ₴ +47.57 ₴ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0000–0.0111

Steam

×8

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0078

884.69 ₴

at 110.59

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 141.92 ₴ +31.33 ₴ per item · on the market 482 · buy 0.0000–0.0104
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 177.87 ₴ +67.28 ₴ per item · on the market 265 · buy 0.0000–0.0090
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 497.37 ₴ +386.78 ₴ per item · on the market 180 · buy 0.0000–0.0104

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 955.75 ₴ +1 516.57 (+158.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −742 ₴

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈4, цена занижена

×3

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

106.60 ₴

at 35.53

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 67.16 ₴ +31.63 ₴ per item · on the market 57 · buy 0.0000–0.0111
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 80.21 ₴ +44.68 ₴ per item · on the market 843 · buy 0.0000–0.0051
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 83.10 ₴ +47.57 ₴ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0000–0.0111

Steam

×7

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

774.10 ₴

at 110.59

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 141.92 ₴ +31.33 ₴ per item · on the market 482 · buy 0.0000–0.0104
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 177.87 ₴ +67.28 ₴ per item · on the market 265 · buy 0.0000–0.0089
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 497.37 ₴ +386.78 ₴ per item · on the market 180 · buy 0.0000–0.0104

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 880.70 ₴ +1 334.13 (+151.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −664 ₴

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈4, цена занижена

×4

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

142.13 ₴

at 35.53

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 67.16 ₴ +31.63 ₴ per item · on the market 57 · buy 0.0000–0.0110
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 80.21 ₴ +44.68 ₴ per item · on the market 843 · buy 0.0000–0.0050
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 83.10 ₴ +47.57 ₴ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0000–0.0110

Steam

×6

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0077

663.51 ₴

at 110.59

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 141.92 ₴ +31.33 ₴ per item · on the market 482 · buy 0.0000–0.0103
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 177.87 ₴ +67.28 ₴ per item · on the market 265 · buy 0.0000–0.0089
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 497.37 ₴ +386.78 ₴ per item · on the market 180 · buy 0.0000–0.0103

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 805.64 ₴ +1 151.69 (+142.9%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −586 ₴

≈2% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈4, цена занижена

×5

UMP-45 | Riot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

177.66 ₴

at 35.53

if this one runs out, you can take

Nova | Ranger (Factory New) — 67.16 ₴ +31.63 ₴ per item · on the market 57 · buy 0.0000–0.0109
USP-S | Torque (Factory New) — 80.21 ₴ +44.68 ₴ per item · on the market 843 · buy 0.0000–0.0050
P90 | Elite Build (Factory New) — 83.10 ₴ +47.57 ₴ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0000–0.0109

Steam

×5

XM1014 | Run Run Run

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0076

552.93 ₴

at 110.59

if this one runs out, you can take

UMP-45 | Late Night Transit (Factory New) — 141.92 ₴ +31.33 ₴ per item · on the market 482 · buy 0.0000–0.0102
FAMAS | 2A2F (Factory New) — 177.87 ₴ +67.28 ₴ per item · on the market 265 · buy 0.0000–0.0088
Glock-18 | Green Line (Factory New) — 497.37 ₴ +386.78 ₴ per item · on the market 180 · buy 0.0000–0.0102

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 730.59 ₴ +969.25 (+132.7%)

What you get 8 outcomes

Profitable outcome 30%
Losing outcome 70%

at a loss

MAC-10 | Derailment

Factory New

float up to 0.007446

449.66 ₴ 30.00%

Steam

at a loss

Zeus x27 | Charged Up

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

697.32 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

best

Tec-9 | Whiteout

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9 159.22 ₴ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

FAMAS | Neural Net

Factory New

float up to 0.006382

293.57 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

P2000 | Handgun

Factory New

float up to 0.010638

824.71 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo

Factory New

float up to 0.005531

368.10 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

worst

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart

Factory New

float up to 0.005319

248.58 ₴ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

Negev | Loudmouth

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.145425

636.17 ₴ 2.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection Variant 3 The Prisma Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection Variant 4 The Gamma 2 Collection instead of The Train 2025 Collection Variant 5 only The Train 2025 Collection Variant 6 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The Falchion Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +1 190.83 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +1 512.34 ₴ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Falchion Collection and The Train 2025 Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 35 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3368081 · The 2018 Inferno Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 713.96₴ · invest 1 024.53₴
profit on prices without salesat least −857 ₴ pricier variants exist

Sawed-Off | Brake Light (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400243 · The Shattered Web Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 698.11₴ · invest 1 091.39₴
profit on prices without salesat least −904 ₴ rare inputs

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.005232 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3396999 · The Overpass 2024 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 693.84₴ · invest 1 021.02₴
profit on prices without salesat least −877 ₴ rare inputs

Glock-18 | Teal Graf (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3394155 · The Horizon Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 693.59₴ · invest 1 039.17₴
profit on prices without salesat least −890 ₴

Dual Berettas | Shred (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400026 · The Shadow Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 693.29₴ · invest 1 039.16₴
profit on prices without salesat least −909 ₴ rare inputs

MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400753 · The Sport & Field Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 693.20₴ · invest 1 031.84₴
profit on prices without salesat least −878 ₴ pricier variants exist

P250 | Small Game (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 3396199 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 692.41₴ · invest 1 089.48₴
profit on prices without salesat least −910 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Cocoa Rampage (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400897 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vanguard Collection · profit 1 691.74₴ · invest 1 064.31₴
profit on prices without salesat least −885 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004494 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3381964 · The Chroma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 691.10₴ · invest 1 036.91₴
profit on prices without salesat least −885 ₴ rare inputs

XM1014 | Quicksilver (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400926 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 1 690.96₴ · invest 1 062.42₴
profit on prices without salesat least −904 ₴ rare inputs

PP-Bizon | Cobalt Halftone (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.003780 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3391493 · The Gamma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 689.18₴ · invest 1 018.09₴
profit on prices without salesat least −882 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Exo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3368791 · The 2018 Nuke Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 688.89₴ · invest 1 097.67₴
profit on prices without salesat least −882 ₴ rare inputs

MP5-SD | Co-Processor (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400533 · The Spectrum 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 686.73₴ · invest 1 013.25₴
profit on prices without salesat least −887 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Jungle Slipstream (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3398272 · The Prisma Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 686.68₴ · invest 1 053.27₴
profit on prices without salesat least −885 ₴ rare inputs

FAMAS | Crypsis (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007668 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3378239 · The CS20 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 686.59₴ · invest 1 021.01₴
profit on prices without salesat least −887 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Assault (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007783 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3377266 · The Breakout Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 686.20₴ · invest 1 019.05₴
profit on prices without salesat least −889 ₴

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400650 · The Spectrum Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 685.41₴ · invest 1 019.61₴
profit on prices without salesat least −886 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Zander (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006436 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3390197 · The Gallery Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 685.03₴ · invest 1 027.15₴
profit on prices without salesat least −886 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Trail Blazer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007892 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3398918 · The Recoil Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 684.97₴ · invest 1 012.56₴
profit on prices without salesat least −886 ₴

Galil AR | Destroyer (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 3400915 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Wildfire Collection · profit 1 678.13₴ · invest 1 086.73₴
profit on prices without salesat least −893 ₴

MAC-10 | Lapis Gator (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007568 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3395549 · The Lake Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 675.49₴ · invest 1 016.18₴
profit on prices without salesat least −896 ₴

SG 553 | Anodized Navy (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.004332 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3375440 · The Bank Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 675.34₴ · invest 1 062.91₴
profit on prices without salesat least −896 ₴

Desert Eagle | Meteorite (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006040 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3388519 · The Fever Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 672.47₴ · invest 1 026.63₴
profit on prices without salesat least −899 ₴ rare inputs

P2000 | Sure Grip (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008079 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3394787 · The Italy Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 670.65₴ · invest 1 024.72₴
profit on prices without salesat least −901 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3396662 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 670.19₴ · invest 1 112.30₴
profit on prices without salesat least −927 ₴ rare inputs

G3SG1 | Keeping Tabs (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New)
Craft 3400805 · The Spy Tech Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 668.85₴ · invest 1 090.31₴
profit on prices without salesat least −920 ₴ rare inputs

R8 Revolver | Monarch (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3373662 · The Arabesque Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 668.01₴ · invest 1 088.82₴
profit on prices without salesat least −903 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.008148 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400892 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Train Collection · profit 1 666.18₴ · invest 1 024.52₴
profit on prices without salesat least −905 ₴ rare inputs

Sawed-Off | Amber Fade (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3394587 · The Huntsman Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 661.58₴ · invest 1 068.65₴
profit on prices without salesat least −937 ₴ rare inputs

SSG 08 | Slashed (Field-Tested) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006217 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3393240 · The Graphic Design Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 660.79₴ · invest 1 098.57₴
profit on prices without salesat least −929 ₴ rare inputs

SCAR-20 | Wild Berry (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007825 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400945 · The Train 2025 Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 1 642.78₴ · invest 1 120.01₴
profit on prices without salesat least −948 ₴ rare inputs

Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007308 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3386872 · The Dust 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 637.29₴ · invest 1 059.03₴
profit on prices without salesat least −934 ₴

M4A1-S | VariCamo (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3370391 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 623.38₴ · invest 1 142.25₴
profit on prices without salesat least −986 ₴ rare inputs

UMP-45 | Full Stop (Factory New) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.007752 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3400912 · The Train 2025 Collection + The Vertigo Collection · profit 1 549.81₴ · invest 1 200.07₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 083 ₴ rare inputs

P90 | Glacier Mesh (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007889
Craft 3373905 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Train 2025 Collection · profit 1 543.48₴ · invest 1 223.16₴
profit on prices without salesat least −1 052 ₴ rare inputs pricier variants exist

SCAR-20 | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear) instead of UMP-45 | Riot (Factory New); XM1014 | Run Run Run (Factory New): float at most 0.006828 instead of 0.007889

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Falchion Collection + The Train 2025 Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 8 outcomes

More

How to build