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The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Restricted → Classified

Average profit +20.25$

Invest 38.36$

Average return 58.61$

ROI +52.8%

Chance of profit 40%

With float: invest at least 90.34 $, profit at most −31.73 $

float premium: at least 51 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −30 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0784

17.83 $

at 2.55

if this one runs out, you can take

P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) — 3.34 $ +0.79 $ per item · on the market 173 · buy 0.0700–0.0706
MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) — 5.38 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 94 · buy 0.0000–0.0486
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) — 5.72 $ +3.17 $ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0700–0.0706

Steam

×2

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

10.76 $

at 5.38

if this one runs out, you can take

P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +1.05 $ per item · on the market 89 · buy 0.0000–0.0107
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) — 7.37 $ +1.99 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0119
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) — 26.35 $ +20.97 $ per item · on the market 88 · buy 0.0000–0.0107

Steam

×1

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0074

9.77 $

at 9.77

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) — 28.02 $ +18.25 $ per item · on the market 628 · buy 0.0200–0.0256

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 38.36 $ +20.25 (+52.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −36 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 7 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×7

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0782

17.83 $

at 2.55

if this one runs out, you can take

P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) — 3.34 $ +0.79 $ per item · on the market 173 · buy 0.0700–0.0704
MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) — 5.38 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 94 · buy 0.0000–0.0485
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) — 5.72 $ +3.17 $ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0700–0.0704

Steam

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

5.38 $

at 5.38

if this one runs out, you can take

P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +1.05 $ per item · on the market 89 · buy 0.0000–0.0104
M249 | Nebula Crusader (Factory New) — 7.37 $ +1.99 $ per item · on the market 30 · buy 0.0000–0.0116
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) — 26.35 $ +20.97 $ per item · on the market 88 · buy 0.0000–0.0104

Steam

×2

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

19.53 $

at 9.77

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) — 28.02 $ +18.25 $ per item · on the market 628 · buy 0.0200–0.0254

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 42.74 $ +16.84 (+39.4%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −48 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1670

1.34 $

at 1.34

if this one runs out, you can take

P250 | Wingshot (Field-Tested) — 1.47 $ +0.13 $ per item · on the market 371 · buy 0.1500–0.1503
MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) — 2.01 $ +0.67 $ per item · on the market 62 · buy 0.0700–0.1035
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Field-Tested) — 2.83 $ +1.49 $ per item · on the market 238 · buy 0.1500–0.1503

Steam

×5

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0759

12.74 $

at 2.55

if this one runs out, you can take

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) — 5.38 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 94 · buy 0.0000–0.0470
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.88 $ per item · on the market 89 · buy 0.0000–0.0683
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) — 26.35 $ +23.80 $ per item · on the market 88 · buy 0.0000–0.0683

Steam

×4

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

39.07 $

at 9.77

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) — 28.02 $ +18.25 $ per item · on the market 628 · buy 0.0200–0.0239

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 53.15 $ +8.38 (+15.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −55 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1628

2.68 $

at 1.34

if this one runs out, you can take

MP7 | Special Delivery (Minimal Wear) — 2.01 $ +0.67 $ per item · on the market 62 · buy 0.0700–0.1009
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) — 3.34 $ +1.99 $ per item · on the market 173 · buy 0.0700–0.1465
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) — 5.72 $ +4.38 $ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0700–0.1465

Steam

×3

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0744

7.64 $

at 2.55

if this one runs out, you can take

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) — 5.38 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 94 · buy 0.0000–0.0461
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.88 $ per item · on the market 89 · buy 0.0000–0.0670
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) — 26.35 $ +23.80 $ per item · on the market 88 · buy 0.0000–0.0670

Steam

×5

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

48.84 $

at 9.77

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) — 28.02 $ +18.25 $ per item · on the market 628 · buy 0.0200–0.0229

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 59.16 $ +3.34 (+5.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −40 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

MP7 | Special Delivery

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

2.01 $

at 2.01

if this one runs out, you can take

M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear) — 2.55 $ +0.53 $ per item · on the market 72 · buy 0.0700–0.1198
P250 | Wingshot (Minimal Wear) — 3.34 $ +1.32 $ per item · on the market 173 · buy 0.0700–0.1078
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Minimal Wear) — 5.72 $ +3.71 $ per item · on the market 144 · buy 0.0700–0.1078

Steam

×6

M249 | Nebula Crusader

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0743

15.28 $

at 2.55

if this one runs out, you can take

MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New) — 5.38 $ +2.83 $ per item · on the market 94 · buy 0.0000–0.0460
P250 | Wingshot (Factory New) — 6.43 $ +3.88 $ per item · on the market 89 · buy 0.0000–0.0668
Galil AR | Stone Cold (Factory New) — 26.35 $ +23.80 $ per item · on the market 88 · buy 0.0000–0.0668

Steam

×3

P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0037

29.30 $

at 9.77

if this one runs out, you can take

AK-47 | Blue Laminate (Factory New) — 28.02 $ +18.25 $ per item · on the market 628 · buy 0.0200–0.0228

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 46.60 $ +13.95 (+29.9%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 40%
Losing outcome 60%

in profit

best

AK-47 | Frontside Misty

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

135.82 $ 30.00%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

G3SG1 | Flux

Factory New

float up to 0.052941

32.38 $ 30.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

SSG 08 | Big Iron

Factory New

float up to 0.037646

30.64 $ 30.00%

Steam

in profit

AWP | Electric Hive

Factory New

float up to 0.023529

80.51 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.011764

102.10 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

in profit

FAMAS | Afterimage

Factory New

float up to 0.042352

49.78 $ 3.33%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 The Train 2025 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 3 The Spectrum 2 Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The Spectrum Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The Sport & Field Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 6 only The Shadow Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +10.46 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +17.74 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Shadow Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 5 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3400149 · The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 21.56$ · invest 32.68$
profit on prices without salesat least −24 $ rare inputs

P90 | Virus (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.077582 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.006634 instead of 0.007427
Craft 3374847 · The Ascent Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 21.24$ · invest 33.61$
profit on prices without salesat least −23 $ rare inputs

USP-S | Royal Guard (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078708 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007619 instead of 0.007427
Craft 3400100 · The Shadow Collection + The Winter Offensive Collection · profit 20.73$ · invest 35.55$
profit on prices without salesat least −24 $ rare inputs

Dual Berettas | Marina (Minimal Wear) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074465 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.003907 instead of 0.007427
Craft 3370359 · The 2021 Train Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 20.06$ · invest 38.71$
profit on prices without salesat least −28 $ rare inputs

Nova | Red Quartz (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.078179 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.007156 instead of 0.007427
Craft 3373878 · The Arms Deal 2 Collection + The Shadow Collection · profit 19.94$ · invest 37.16$
profit on prices without salesat least −24 $ rare inputs

Nova | Graphite (Factory New) instead of P90 | Blind Spot (Factory New); M249 | Nebula Crusader (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075739 instead of 0.078488; MP7 | Special Delivery (Factory New): float at most 0.005022 instead of 0.007427

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Shadow Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

How to build i Ways to build 5 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 6 outcomes

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How to build