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Crafts · The Vanguard Collection

prices updated 24.10 13:23 MSK

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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Average profit +4.18$

Invest 18.51$

Average return 22.69$

ROI +22.6%

Chance of profit 50%

With float: invest at least 45.93 $, profit at most −23.24 $

float premium: at least 26 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1669

1.22 $

at 1.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) — 1.53 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.1144
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) — 1.73 $ +0.51 $ per item · on the market 52 · buy 0.0700–0.1321
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.87 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0621

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0758

13.82 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0137
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0835
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0252

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0051

3.46 $

at 3.46

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) — 4.37 $ +0.91 $ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0064
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) — 4.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 114 · buy 0.0000–0.0025
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) — 5.59 $ +2.13 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0036

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.51 $ +4.18 (+22.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1682

2.44 $

at 1.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) — 1.53 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.1158
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) — 1.73 $ +0.51 $ per item · on the market 52 · buy 0.0700–0.1330
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.87 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0629

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0763

3.46 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0141
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0842
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0259

Steam

×6

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0055

20.79 $

at 3.46

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) — 4.37 $ +0.91 $ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0069
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) — 4.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 114 · buy 0.0000–0.0027
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) — 5.59 $ +2.13 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0038

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 26.69 $ +0.54 (+2.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −2 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1657

1.22 $

at 1.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) — 1.53 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.1131
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) — 1.73 $ +0.51 $ per item · on the market 52 · buy 0.0700–0.1313
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.87 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0614

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

8.64 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0133
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0829
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0245

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

3.16 $

at 3.16

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) — 3.46 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0603
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Minimal Wear) — 4.54 $ +1.39 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0700–0.0754
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) — 4.91 $ +1.75 $ per item · on the market 114 · buy 0.0000–0.0301

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0048

10.39 $

at 3.46

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) — 4.37 $ +0.91 $ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0060
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) — 4.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 114 · buy 0.0000–0.0024
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) — 5.59 $ +2.13 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0033

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 23.41 $ +2.00 (+8.5%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −3 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1647

2.44 $

at 1.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) — 1.53 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.1120
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) — 1.73 $ +0.51 $ per item · on the market 52 · buy 0.0700–0.1306
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.87 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0609

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0751

5.18 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0130
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0824
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0240

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0044

17.32 $

at 3.46

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil (Factory New) — 4.37 $ +0.91 $ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0056
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) — 4.91 $ +1.45 $ per item · on the market 114 · buy 0.0000–0.0022
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Azure Zebra (Factory New) — 5.59 $ +2.13 $ per item · on the market 19 · buy 0.0000–0.0031

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 24.95 $ +1.37 (+5.5%)

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 8 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

13.82 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0125
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0815
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0231

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Water Sigil

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

6.32 $

at 3.16

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) — 3.46 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0596
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Nightshade (Minimal Wear) — 4.54 $ +1.39 $ per item · on the market 46 · buy 0.0700–0.0745
StatTrak™ P250 | Steel Disruption (Factory New) — 4.91 $ +1.75 $ per item · on the market 114 · buy 0.0000–0.0298

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 20.14 $ +3.46 (+17.2%)

What you get 6 outcomes

Profitable outcome 50%
Losing outcome 50%

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.036099

8.79 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.055999

30.80 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.047599

50.91 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

9.69 $ 22.50%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Blue Laminate

Factory New

float up to 0.046599

56.01 $ 5.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P90 | Blind Spot

Factory New

float up to 0.034999

14.97 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 4 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The eSports 2013 Winter Collection Variant 5 The eSports 2014 Summer Collection instead of The Vanguard Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +0.06 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +3.19 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2013 Winter Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3400995 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 3.83$ · invest 17.26$
sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New); StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Minimal Wear instead of Factory New; StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165604 instead of 0.166940; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075427 instead of 0.075892

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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