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The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

StatTrak™ Mil-Spec Grade → Restricted

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −22.13$

Invest at least 43.23$

Average return 21.10$

ROI −51.2%

Chance of profit 24%

With float: invest at least 43.23 $, profit at most −22.13 $

float premium: at least 25 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

1.22 $

at 1.22

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Minimal Wear) — 1.53 $ +0.31 $ per item · on the market 31 · buy 0.0700–0.1129
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear) — 1.73 $ +0.51 $ per item · on the market 52 · buy 0.0700–0.1312
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.87 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0613

Steam

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

13.82 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0132
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0828
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0244

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

2.21 $

at 2.21

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) — 3.22 $ +1.01 $ per item · on the market 28 · buy 0.1500–0.2108
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Minimal Wear) — 3.60 $ +1.39 $ per item · on the market 26 · buy 0.0700–0.0815
StatTrak™ Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) — 4.19 $ +1.97 $ per item · on the market 15 · buy 0.1500–0.2038

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 17.26 $ +3.83 (+22.2%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −1 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 8 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×8

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0764

13.82 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0141
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0843
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0260

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1685

4.43 $

at 2.21

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) — 3.22 $ +1.01 $ per item · on the market 28 · buy 0.1500–0.2159
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Minimal Wear) — 3.60 $ +1.39 $ per item · on the market 26 · buy 0.0700–0.0842
StatTrak™ Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) — 4.19 $ +1.97 $ per item · on the market 15 · buy 0.1500–0.2107

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 18.25 $ +2.89 (+15.8%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −4 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0745

8.64 $

at 1.73

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky (Factory New) — 2.09 $ +0.37 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0000–0.0125
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Minimal Wear) — 2.14 $ +0.41 $ per item · on the market 32 · buy 0.0700–0.0815
StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.46 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0230

Steam

×2

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Murky

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0039

4.19 $

at 2.09

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MP9 | Dart (Factory New) — 2.19 $ +0.10 $ per item · on the market 24 · buy 0.0000–0.0072
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Factory New) — 5.75 $ +3.66 $ per item · on the market 16 · buy 0.0600–0.0645
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Urban Hazard (Factory New) — 6.17 $ +4.08 $ per item · on the market 87 · buy 0.0000–0.0039

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1630

6.64 $

at 2.21

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) — 3.22 $ +1.01 $ per item · on the market 28 · buy 0.1500–0.2062
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Hexane (Minimal Wear) — 3.60 $ +1.39 $ per item · on the market 26 · buy 0.0700–0.0790
StatTrak™ Negev | Bratatat (Field-Tested) — 4.19 $ +1.97 $ per item · on the market 15 · buy 0.1500–0.1976

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 19.47 $ +1.73 (+8.9%)

What you get 9 outcomes

Profitable outcome 47%
Losing outcome 53%

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Grinder

Factory New

float up to 0.040124

8.79 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

30.80 $ 22.50%

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk

Factory New

float up to 0.059499

50.91 $ 22.50%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.087499

6.30 $ 22.50%

price without deals

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Blue Streak

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

4.89 $ 2.00%

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Crimson Web

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

87.85 $ 2.00%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Steel Disruption

Factory New

float up to 0.017499

13.69 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ MP7 | Ocean Foam

Factory New

float up to 0.006999

11.05 $ 2.00%

Steam

at a loss

StatTrak™ P90 | Virus

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.124749

6.44 $ 2.00%

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 only The Vanguard Collection Variant 3 The eSports 2013 Winter Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 4 The Winter Offensive Collection instead of The eSports 2014 Summer Collection Variant 5 only The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −0.16 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +2.78 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Vanguard Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3400988 · The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2013 Winter Collection · profit 4.18$ · invest 18.51$
sells slowly rare inputs

StatTrak™ Nova | Ghost Camo (Factory New) instead of StatTrak™ XM1014 | Red Python (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Highwayman: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Firestarter (Field-Tested): float at most 0.166940 instead of 0.165604; StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Delusion (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075892 instead of 0.075427

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Vanguard Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

How to build i Ways to build 3 ways: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 9 outcomes

More

How to build