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Crafts · The Wildfire Collection

prices from 24.10 13:23 MSK, older than a day

$≈

The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

StatTrak™ Classified → Covert

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −245.75$

Invest at least 549.56$

Average return 303.81$

ROI −44.7%

Chance of profit 0%

With float: invest at least 549.56 $, profit at most −245.75 $

float premium: at least 301 $

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −231 $

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 1 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×1

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

28.57 $

at 28.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) — 44.44 $ +15.87 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0700–0.0993
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) — 61.60 $ +33.03 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0700–0.1258

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1656

91.67 $

at 18.33

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested) — 22.44 $ +4.11 $ per item · on the market 8 · buy 0.1500–0.1656
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 27.63 $ +9.30 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.0942
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +25.81 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0942

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0754

110.54 $

at 27.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +16.51 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0754
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) — 49.35 $ +21.72 $ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.0700–0.1075
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — 69.01 $ +41.38 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0700–0.1075

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 230.78 $ +73.03 (+31.6%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −271 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×4

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

114.29 $

at 28.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) — 44.44 $ +15.87 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0700–0.0998
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) — 61.60 $ +33.03 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0700–0.1264

Steam

×1

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1663

18.33 $

at 18.33

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested) — 22.44 $ +4.11 $ per item · on the market 8 · buy 0.1500–0.1663
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 27.63 $ +9.30 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.0945
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +25.81 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0945

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0756

138.17 $

at 27.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +16.51 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0756
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) — 49.35 $ +21.72 $ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.0700–0.1084
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — 69.01 $ +41.38 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0700–0.1084

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 270.80 $ +16.16 (+6.0%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −281 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 5 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×5

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1645

142.86 $

at 28.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) — 44.44 $ +15.87 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0700–0.0987
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) — 61.60 $ +33.03 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0700–0.1250

Steam

×5

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0750

138.17 $

at 27.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +16.51 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0750
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) — 49.35 $ +21.72 $ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.0700–0.1064
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — 69.01 $ +41.38 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0700–0.1064

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 281.04 $ +0.30 (+0.1%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −241 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 2 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×2

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

57.15 $

at 28.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) — 44.44 $ +15.87 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0700–0.0983
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) — 61.60 $ +33.03 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0700–0.1245

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1638

73.33 $

at 18.33

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested) — 22.44 $ +4.11 $ per item · on the market 8 · buy 0.1500–0.1638
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 27.63 $ +9.30 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.0936
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +25.81 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0936

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0748

110.54 $

at 27.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +16.51 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0748
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) — 49.35 $ +21.72 $ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.0700–0.1057
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — 69.01 $ +41.38 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0700–0.1057

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 241.02 $ +57.17 (+23.7%)

Profit on prices without sales: without them at least −251 $

Less than 1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 3 шт., годных ≈0, цена занижена

×3

StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1620

85.72 $

at 28.57

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) — 44.44 $ +15.87 $ per item · on the market 13 · buy 0.0700–0.0972
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) — 61.60 $ +33.03 $ per item · on the market 27 · buy 0.0700–0.1231

Steam

×3

StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger

Field-Tested

buy 0.1500–0.1620

55.00 $

at 18.33

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Field-Tested) — 22.44 $ +4.11 $ per item · on the market 8 · buy 0.1500–0.1620
StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 27.63 $ +9.30 $ per item · on the market 11 · buy 0.0700–0.0930
StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +25.81 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0930

Steam

×4

StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera

Minimal Wear

buy 0.0700–0.0741

110.54 $

at 27.63

if this one runs out, you can take

StatTrak™ AWP | Corticera (Minimal Wear) — 44.14 $ +16.51 $ per item · on the market 25 · buy 0.0700–0.0741
StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear) — 49.35 $ +21.72 $ per item · on the market 6 · buy 0.0700–0.1037
StatTrak™ Nova | Bloomstick (Minimal Wear) — 69.01 $ +41.38 $ per item · on the market 4 · buy 0.0700–0.1037

Steam

Set · 10 pcs 251.26 $ +41.32 (+16.4%)

What you get 4 outcomes

Profitable outcome 95%
Losing outcome 5%

in profit

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Jaguar

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.113636

392.55 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

319.13 $ 45.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

in profit

best

StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fuel Injector

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.113636

526.46 $ 5.00%

price without deals rarely sells

Steam

at a loss

worst

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar

Minimal Wear

float up to 0.072727

56.01 $ 5.00%

price without deals

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

Variant 2 only The eSports 2014 Summer Collection

More

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week +2.30 $ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week +65.24 $ historical median

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Wildfire Collection and The eSports 2014 Summer Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 4 crafts almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401045 · The Wildfire Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 74.68$ · invest 230.78$
profit on prices without salesat least −231 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M4A4 | The Battlestar: Factory New instead of Minimal Wear; StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162466 instead of 0.165610; StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.162466 instead of 0.165610; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074336 instead of 0.075429
Craft 3394660 · The Huntsman Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 72.24$ · invest 246.76$
profit on prices without salesat least −247 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Atomic Alloy (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.164264 instead of 0.165610; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.074961 instead of 0.075429
Craft 3396721 · The Operation Riptide Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 71.94$ · invest 220.55$
profit on prices without salesat least −221 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Toybox (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)
Craft 3396277 · The Operation Broken Fang Collection + The eSports 2014 Summer Collection · profit 67.99$ · invest 242.22$
profit on prices without salesat least −242 $ rare inputs

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Cyber Security (Field-Tested) instead of StatTrak™ AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested); StatTrak™ AUG | Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested): float at most 0.165361 instead of 0.165610; StatTrak™ P2000 | Corticera (Minimal Wear): float at most 0.075343 instead of 0.075429

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

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