The Breakout Collection + The Gallery Collection

Covert → knife or gloves · Items in the contract: 5

Prices by float: ночной проверки нет, числа ниже — оценка с учётом float

Average profit at most · with float −64 666.13₴

Invest at least 111 745.28₴

Average return 47 079.15₴

ROI −57.9%

Chance of profit 6%

With float: invest at least 111 745.28 ₴, profit at most −64 666.13 ₴

float premium: at least 63 405 ₴

Hard to build: not enough fitting lots for a single contract

The gain is understated: 1 outcome has no price, that is 6.2% of the chance

Sell on CSFloat: without them the profit is −37 103.68 ₴

Check:

To calculator I have items + a third collection

Buy on Sell on

How to build

1% of lots fit: на контракт не хватает: нужно 4 шт., годных ≈1

×4

M4A1-S | Cyrex

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

41 808.32 ₴

at 10 452.08

if this one runs out, you can take

P90 | Asiimov (Factory New) — 13 606.29 ₴ +3 154.21 ₴ per item · on the market 33 · buy 0.0000–0.0132

Steam

×1

Glock-18 | Gold Toof

Factory New

buy 0.0000–0.0072

5 957.69 ₴

at 5 957.69

if this one runs out, you can take

M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New) — 7 976.54 ₴ +2 018.85 ₴ per item · on the market 49 · buy 0.0000–0.0058

Steam

Set · 5 pcs 47 766.01 ₴ −686.85 (−1.4%)

What you get 26 outcomes

Profitable outcome 37%
Losing outcome 57%
Above the Steam cap 6%

Order

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

85 872.83 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

64 138.02 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 923.79 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

45 611.29 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

59 224.99 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

31 812.48 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

40 345.24 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

best

★ Butterfly Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

200 516.69 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife | Night

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

58 825.16 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

38 620.06 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

not on Steam: above the cap 6.15%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Butterfly Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

42 709.24 ₴ 6.15%

sell on CSFloat pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

in profit

★ Butterfly Knife

no wear

68 529.84 ₴ 6.15%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Fade

Factory New

float up to 0.001081

8 162.40 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Slaughter

Factory New

float up to 0.013378

6 708.34 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Blue Steel

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

6 523.92 ₴ 1.54%

rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Stained

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

5 183.74 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened

Factory New

float up to 0.013513

11 497.30 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Forest DDPAT

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 190.29 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Boreal Forest

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 466.51 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Crimson Web

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

13 721.97 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Scorched

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

4 379.94 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

worst

★ Kukri Knife | Safari Mesh

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

3 502.81 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Night Stripe

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

6 076.59 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife | Urban Masked

Factory New

float up to 0.069999

5 115.85 ₴ 1.54%

price without deals rarely sells pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

at a loss

★ Kukri Knife

no wear

4 362.61 ₴ 1.54%

pricier variants exist lots by number

Steam

Craft variants

Variant 1 this one The Breakout Collection + The Gallery Collection

Variant 2 The Glove Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 3 The Glove Collection instead of The Breakout Collection Variant 4 The Clutch Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 5 The Revolution Collection instead of The Gallery Collection Variant 6 The Danger Zone Collection instead of The Gallery Collection

In a week, when the outcome can be sold from outcome price history

In a bad week −2 088.61 ₴ a worse week happens one time in ten

In a typical week −930.86 ₴ historical median

6% of outcomes (by probability) have less than two weeks of price history, their price is taken as of today.

If you repeat 10 000 simulations over the outcome odds

Attempts: 10

I already have items Enter their float and the site will pick what to buy

Mix in a collection

Items of this craft's collections of the right rarity fit: The Breakout Collection and The Gallery Collection — and of the mixed-in collection: enter its items with float, your own or ones you want to buy. Its share in the set equals its share in the chances. Your own items are counted in the profit at market price, because you could sell them. The money needed to buy the rest is shown separately.

Third collection Add a third collection to the craft's two and see whether it gets more profitable

All splits of inputs across three collections are tried (1/1/8, 5/3/2 and the rest) and all outcome wears. The best set is shown for each collection. “Find the best” first quickly scores all collections and then calculates exactly the five best by the quick score.

Similar 1 craft almost like this one

One of three things counts as similar. The same set with a different wear of cheap outcomes: profit and investment differ by less than 0,5%. The same nine items with a different tenth: profit differs by no more than 10%, investment by 20%. The same main half, whose outcomes make the profit, with a different filler: profit lower by no more than a quarter, investment cheaper by no more than a quarter.

Craft 3401627 · The Gallery Collection + The Breakout Collection · profit −686.85₴ · invest 47 766.01₴
no outcome price marketplace price sells slowly rare inputs pricier variants exist

How to read these numbers

Fees. Steam adds 15% to the seller's price, so the seller gets the listing price divided by 1,15. Multiplying by 0,85 is wrong.

The outcome can only be sold after a week. Inputs bought on Steam go into the contract right away. The outcome can also be crafted further without waiting, but Sell it is possible only after seven days. Over a week the price may change, so the amount shown remains an estimate at calculation time.

Prices are conservative. Sales are counted at the lower of the listing price and the sale price. Purchases are counted at the cheapest listing, which is a lower bound. You cannot buy ten at that price: each next listing costs more. «Check floats on Steam» shows the real purchase price.

The Breakout Collection + The Gallery Collection

How to build i Ways to build 1 way: the best first, then from the most accessible. Click a tab and the numbers below are recalculated for that way.

What you get 26 outcomes

More

How to build